It's obviously a matter of when, not if. It's difficult to put an exact estimate on when oil scarcity will become a true crisis, but we can all agree that it's a non-renewable resource which will not be around forever.
It was just as obvious a hundred years ago that horse manure piling up in city streets was just going to keep getting worse.
we can all agree that it's a non-renewable resource which will not be around forever
True but irrelevant. The oil supply is finite only in physical terms, not in economic terms. It is possible to extract an unbounded amount of value from a bounded resource. All you need is an increasing price, which happens automatically as supplies decrease, and which provides an incentive for substitution. I'd happily take a wager that humanity will transition off petroleum long before we "run out" of oil.
The stuff really is more challenging to produce, you need much more understanding and higher quality tools. Fortunately we're enjoying the compound interest of computers, software, material science and a million other fields that make difficult things simpler.
I won't take your transition bet, but i would bet if we had to extract oil using only technology older than 2000, we'd be pretty screwed.