It's not the same conjecture. It's a fact that Canada is in a recession right now. Their economy is highly dependent on the price of commodities. The price of commodities is primarily determined by the dollar and demand. The dollar is high and is going to stay there. Demand is toast. It's obvious what outcome that is going to spell for Canada.
Nearly all commodities are lower than a year ago, and half of them have crashed. Oil is the opposite of an outlier.
Copper has gone from $3.30x, to $2.20x in a year. Copper is considered a critical bell-weather commodity. Demand for copper has fallen off a cliff.
Iron Ore has crashed by 60% in less than two years, and is down 40% in just one year.
Coal has dropped by over 20% in one year.
Steel prices are down 30% in one year.
Platinum has gone from $1500x to $992.
Natural gas was $4 last year this time, and it's $2.60x now.
Heating oil and gasoline have crashed with oil.
Sugar has dropped by 50% in a year, on a non-stop crash.
Lumber is down by 1/3 in a year, and has crashed.
Coffee is down by 40%.
Corn, wheat and orange juice are all down slightly versus one year ago. Rice is down about 15% vs a year ago. Soybeans are down 13%. Soybean oil is down over 20%.
Oats have crashed by 40%.