Ben wrote about Kickstarter traction != product-market fit. What're your thoughts on this? What would you want to see from a startup that has a somewhat successful crowdfund campaign before you would invest?
Then there is the question of what qualifies as a "successful campaign"? If you sell your product at a loss (I can point to some examples) and sell over a million, i dont know if i consider that a success. Whereas, Particle has done multiple 600k plus campaigns. For a consumer product that might be OK, but for a developer kit, that represents a massive amount of LTV.
All in all, i would say that I dont invest entirely based on a kickstarter campaign (and most often commit before the campaign happens) but the more data the better, and the more action the team has done, the better to learn their behaviors.