Why the US stores 700M barrels of oil underground
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Strategic reserves can absolutely also be used as an offensive economic weapon, however. As one example, when Salvador Allende became President of Chile in the early 1970s and nationalized Chilean copper mining, the US dumped >250,000 tons of copper from its strategic reserves onto the world market, crashing the price, in a (quite successful) attempt to destabilize the Chilean economy, which was heavily reliant on copper exports. Of course when that still didn’t lead to Allende’s downfall, plan B was a CIA-sponsored military coup.
My interpretation wasn't that they're working together, i.e. coordinating, more like acting in unison where they are each given a different pressure-point to attack suited to their innate abilities or field. So a central goal would be established at the highest level and you give a task to each entity that can contribute in their own separate ways to that goal - e.g. a newspaper leaks something that will destabilize something. An NGO will support a particular group with food, AID, legal advice, protection. A diplomat will call in some favors.
They're all doing different things with different effects that will hopefully contribute towards the greater goal, which would also explain how things can go pear-shaped if it doesn't all lock together into a cohesive outcome.
Russia was collateral damage.
We're talking about 49% of total US crude oil production.
OPEC got greedy, that created room for shale, and Russia got hurt.
But there's another country they're looking to disrupt, one who's primary source of income is through oil sales due to sanctions. Their biggest enemy.
Iran.
It probably doesn't help that Putin is messing around the mideast and trying to get all sorts of oil/gas pipelines running through it. On top of Putin cozying up to Iran, which is SA's regional rival. I imagine there's a realpolitik angle here and probably a dozen other angles, but the idea that the US called up SA and made them drop prices solely to hurt Putin laughable. Putin is already hurting Putin by forcing sanctions on himself with his various annexations. Even without the oil drop, Russia's economy would still be in the shitter. They can't get the loans they need to beat the recession that's been brewing for years. They can't modernize their economy, can't diversify, etc. They scared off foreign investors with their annexations, civilian targeting, corruption, and nationalization of wealth. What country did the founder of VK flee to, for example? The oil price drop is just the icing on Putin's incompetence.
The ruble is now 0.015 US Dollar, which is half its historic price. We didn't get here by oil price drops alone. Putin is digging his own grave here, and by proxy, the Russian people's.
Politically, if Saudi Arabia can't be counted on to fix prices when faced with a threat like Russia and Ukraine, then why does the US keep them as an ally, since they're clearly involved with terrorism?
By contrast, the US added about three million barrels per day in three years ('12,'13,'14).
Most of the oil price damage was caused by the dollar. Oil had been running at significant global oversupply for years before the dollar began to crash the price back in June/July 2014. That same dollar effect threw Canada into a recession, cut Australia's growth rate in half, and crushed emerging markets including Brazil.
Long before Saudi Arabia boosted production, the dollar took off on its greatest run in decades. Oil immediately began to crash from there forward.
The USSR also collapsed due to the strong dollar 30 years ago, which dropped the price of oil substantially. Oil went from $140 inflation adjusted, for three years, to plunging off a cliff to $35 or so, courtesy of Volcker's strong dollar move. And then again Russia nearly imploded during the cheap oil days of 1997-2000, also caused by an extremely strong dollar (gold hit around ~$250).
When the dollar is strong, it takes fewer of them to buy a barrel of oil. ITT there is a lot of talk about the production side of the equation, but the effect of the strong dollar and weaker Chinese demand have played a role too.
China is talking with Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran about RMB denominated contracts, so that'll be fun. Currency risk will have to factored into contract prices.
This petrodollar conspiracy is baffling.
Countries don't hold dollars solely to buy oil.
The oil and gas industry is only about 4.6% to 6.5% of the global economy.
Countries hold reserve currencies to manage the exchange rate of their currency. Petrodollar conspiracists would be well served by learning about foreign exchange reserves: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-exchange_reserves
And in any case, only 65% of foreign currency reserves are in the USD.
The US defense of Saudi Arabia has a requirement that Saudi sell oil in US dollars..
The price may return to the equilibrium price at some point, but the single seller is able to hold it low for as long as they have reserves to dump. If other sellers are dependent on sales, then they must compete.
Not really. OPEC's strategy is one of production. Based on their reserves, OPEC could keep it up for decades. If you're dumping a strategic reserve, it has a limited time span and likely the market can estimate how long since the reserve was public info.
It's also not at all easy to work out who's supplying what in such a giant market.
(Look at the huge 2008-2009 swing, for example)
That having been said, the US actually ran a planned long-term programme for oil storage. But if someone suddenly floods a market, there probably isn't infrastructure and expertise to immediately seize that as an arbitrage opportunity. If it happened every few years then there'd be tons of cheap storage, if it happens once every few decades, then sudden gluts probably dump the price with little capacity for investors to immediately buy back in. And this is coincidentally a few years short of derivatives taking off on a big scale, Allende died the year of the Black-Scholes model, which would've made everything more frictionless and easier to invest and trade in for the various parties (producers, investors, storage, buyers etc)
Of course it wasn't the only factor, it may have dropped prices by a few percent and that's already very significant. Remember that a lot of US employees and advisers left the country after the copper industry was appropriated, replaced by people with very different backgrounds and no experience to manage these companies. I've seen some sources that said the price of production went from 20 n something cents to 40 n something cents, while the price on the market was something like 49 cents. Profits were squeezed hard. Combined with sanctions on Chile (much of Chilean copper went to the US, Europe and Japan, big allies who could impose quotas and tariffs), a small price drop due to extra copper flooding the market and similar issues in other markets, could and indeed did create layoffs, economic woes and friction in Chilean society.
Do you have a source with more details? 250,000 tons of copper doesn't really sounds like much. Wikipedia says annual WW production is 18M tons, so the US dumped 1.4% of one's year production on the market. Sure, enough to depress prices, but for how long? It would seem like you'd need to keep dumping over a long period of time otherwise the price would dip for a few months, then recover.
Overall (according to google sleuthing) the price of copper was down by about 25% in 1971–1972 compared to 1970.
Keep in mind: (1) Copper made up something like 2/3 of Chile’s exports at the time, so every incremental price drop was a severe blow; (2) The US simultaneously cut Chile off from international credit and aid; (3) The CIA helped organize industrial sabotage, protests, strikes, etc., so there was also some disruption to Chilean production at the time.
You can read the White House memo here: http://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdm-nixon/nsdm-93.pdf
They are "strategic" after all, which is a word that is meaningful in the global political sense. Consider that strategic weapons are the ones that could destroy life on earth.
Also, its a moral hazard, and frankly stupid, to make non-US nations above criticism just because they're small. Assad is mass murdering his people in Syria, for example. He deserves that criticism, and more.
Hell, Allende's downfall had everything to do with running a radical administration hell bent on nationalizing everything and pissing off business owners, the workers, congress, and the military. Of course, people like you shout, "OMG THE USA OVERTHREW HIM... somehow" and here we are. Sadly, this is further anti-US propaganda. Allende dug his own grave yet the US gets the blame. It is possible to be disliked by the US and also be a domestic fuckup on a level where your own people get rid of you. How nice to always have someone else to blame for your troubles.
The USA, for its part, needs to then be very circumspect in who it steamrollers and when. Not because it can't get away with it; because its wrong.
It's basically there to both protect Canada's domestic syrup producers and extend the sales market internationally.
You can bet your tuque that the reserve would be put into play if New England syrup producers made a move that might hurt the Quebec producers across the border.
It was actually worth $30 Million
http://gawker.com/we-gave-canada-one-job-dont-lose-all-the-m...
My favourite quote:
""" The Federation of Québec Maple Syrup Producers (three magical elves) noticed that the syrup was missing during a routine inspection of the warehouse, which is maintained as part of the world's "global strategic maple syrup reserve." """
You may have heard the phrase "two wrongs don't make a right."
It's basically CIA jackles all the way down... (still is, Ahem Bush)
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bryan+Mound+Strategic+Petr...
http://energy.gov/fe/services/petroleum-reserves/strategic-p...
The price of oil is not conspiracy driven at the moment. It used to be, back when OPEC had more control. Now that everybody has fracking technology, supply exceeds demand, and OPEC can't do much about the price.
For an overview of OPEC (mostly Saudi) thinking on this, see [1].
[1] http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/saudi-arabia-w...
Think of it as 0.13 years of oil for the USA alone or 0.02 years of oil for the World.
He noticed what looked line capped oil wells in the fields. When he asked what they were the official confirmed that they contained oil, which "we will only start using once we can't buy anymore from anyone else".
I've never heard of China having their own oil fields so I assume that there was something lost in the translation but regardless, it was an interesting insight into the Chinese psyche.
"The imported oil is not your enemy, it's your friend. Every barrel that you use up that comes from somebody else is a barrel of your precious oil which you're going to need to feed your people and maintain your civilization."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1631292-charlie-munger-think...
Electrolysis-refined hydrogen becomes economical when oil hits $200/barrel, and that has a lot of environmental benefits. I would bet if oil stayed over $120/barrel for several years the economic incentives would kick in and someone would find a way to make hydrogen cost-competitive, probably even eventually bringing the cost down so it's similar to current oil prices.
Not only do you still have to spend energy mining and transporting coal, but the energy spent refining the coal is immense compared to what refinable products you get out of it.
There is also market evidence where people are more willing to put their money into technological development of fracking than liquefaction.
It's best to be suspicious whenever a source suggests that coal liquefaction, and other processes like it, are that simple. A good book on the topic is Oil 101 by Morgan Downey.
The "sit on it" strategy assumes that the resource held in reserve will not become obsolete. It makes more sense to me to pull it all out of the ground as fast as you can, so you can sell more of it when the global price is highest, rather than being forced to buy at that time.
Didn't China learn anything from its rare earths play? The supply curve never really hits a brick wall. As long as the price keeps going up, the market keeps producing more to sell. And even if you hit a hard limit, such as by exhausting all the cheap wells and mines, human ingenuity often produces an acceptable substitute.
Many countries are burning the petroleum as fast as they can, keeping the computers running for the engineers researching wind, solar, nuclear fission, geothermal, hydrogen, fracking, cellulose enzymes, algae oils, nuclear fusion, radioisotope thermal, external combustion engines, generator-electric hybrids, fuel cells, denser batteries, more efficient motors and transmissions, and a whole host of other technologies that will finally be ready to take over, once the last oil on Earth is being burned by China to keep its lights on and tractors running.
Everyone else will be running their tractors with fuels mixed up from agricultural waste, and keeping the lights on with a dozen different competing technologies.
It seems like a bad strategy to me, but I'm not Chinese.
It caused a lot of companies to reexamine their supply chains, this time considering factors other than just price per ton. Several nations started subsidizing domestic production from mothballed facilities for strategic economic reasons. China went from 95% share of that market to less than 80%.
Essentially, they were expecting to get higher prices by restricting output as a monopoly supplier, but it blew up in their faces.
China is the world's fourth largest oil producer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
Mm yes this is a conspiracy theory waiting to happen
> The facility at Shibushi, for example is just off-shore. Following the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami which struck Japan in 2011, calls were made to expand the country’s oil stocks in case of crises in the future which might hamper oil distribution again.
One of the most volcanically and tidally affected and nautically food-dependent nations on earth thinks it's a good idea to hold millions of barrels of oil on their coastlines?!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/even-a-slo...
A little weird that I cannot find a "Freetown, Texas" using Google. I like to look at places on a map when they are mentioned in articles.
Maybe they got the name wrong, or is it so small it's not on the map?
Or I'm using Google wrong :)
"Hides" is a stupid word. It's not hidden; it's well-advertised.
The reporter calls it "expensive" because it costs $200m/year. That's not expensive, that's ridiculously cheap insurance; it's surely one of the most cost-effective government programs in existence.
(I stopped reading at that point.)
In my opinion the amount of stored oil is ridiculously low with about 8 days of world oil consumption. It can only be used to iron out minor hiccups on the world production or to power the US military and US emergency food supply for some time. Is this reporter telling us that this little safety measure isn't worth that amount of money?
We (the United States) produce around 9 million barrels per day, and could produce more if necessary. We import a bit more than 7 million barrels per day.
We wouldn't need to replace domestic production, so the strategic reserve would cover about 100 days of lost imports. But there are few if any scenarios where we'd lose all imports -- most likely we'd lose access to only a small fraction of imports, and even that kind of shock would spike prices and thus our consumption would drop and domestic production would increase -- so the reserve can be expected to last far more than 100 days. (If we are ever in a situation where it seems plausible the reserve might be exhausted, e.g., a major global war, then extreme conservation measures will be enforced, and the discussion changes state.)
The title is trying to bash the US and capitalize on the US hating going on right now.