As someone who commuted on Caltrain daily from 2007 to 2011, I got to witness the rise and fall and rise again of the ridership. It is definitely a lagging indicator.
Other good indicators are traffic on 101 and and Dim Sum wait times on weekends.
Other good indicators are traffic on 101 and and Dim Sum wait times on weekends.
Almost as if a competent city planner could see the congestion coming in advance and make changes to prevent it!