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Comment by abhv | Hacker News Reader

This is a press release from Netflix (no link to the underlying study).

https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/getNewsSummary.do?newsId=26...

Except they use the data to make stupid conclusions:

"However, in our research of more than 20 shows across 16 markets, we found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot. This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made."

I don't see how the study sheds light into "causality," i.e. "how fans are made."

Since netflix does not need to sell commercials, there is no incentive problem with binging. A network, however, needs to keep your attention every Wednesday evening to sell their commercial slots, so they have to pace their material episode by episode.

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Well I was hooked on Dare Devil, The IT Crowd, House of Cards and Firefly on the first episode, but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them. I'm sure there is a key point for most shows that most who watch up to that point end up watching the whole thing. BSG I remember took 10-12 episodes before I really got into it, and I only went that far because people wouldn't shut up about how good it was. There are also shows I really liked but either dragged on or I just lost interest in or was just frustrated by the characters (The Killing, Buffy, etc)

> but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them.

I can detect no commonalities between House of Cards and The IT Crowd!

That's why I qualified "for most of them".

This is certainly true for me. If I have any inkling I'll like a show I don't even let it infect my opinion if I dislike the pilot, as that's normally he case. Heck, for shows that have been around a while sometimes I don't even care for the first season but keep watching - some of those have turned into my favorites

The Wire is the only show coming to mind where I was completely sold by he first ep.

I usually watch shows in a similar way, which is also why I try to wait until all of the first season is available on-demand before starting a show. I'm also fairly cautious with shows and waiting until the full season has run allows a lot of critical opinion to have already surfaced.

Regarding the Wire, I've watched the series three times now and I'm still not sure the first episode is a good hook, or I even started to get hooked. What was a big surprise to me the third time through is how I still get transfixed on season 4.

One case where I was hooked by the third episode but ultimately gave up on is Orange is the New Black. I found most of the first season fairly compelling, but by the end, it was apparent the show was going down a road that I wasn't interested in. I would have preferred to keep the series relatively realistic, run a season or two in prison and then focus the end on the transition back. Instead, they kept the main character in prison, seemingly indefinitely, and started putting a lot more focus on the other characters. I skipped around season three a little bit and was deeply disappointed at how it treated meaty topics like private prison profiteering so flippantly. I suppose The Wire did set the bar unreasonably high for dealing with those sorts of topics.

There are many shows that for whatever reason I don't start watching initially but then enough people I trust like them that I'll watch. Those are the ones that fit the pattern we're discussing.

There are many other shows which I don't have high hopes for but start watching just because they're on. For those I won't give it the full season but I also don't judge just by the first few eps either. These are the sorts of shows that often don't make it past a season or two anyways so it's a bit academic :)

I like OitNB but have the same issues you state. It's a fine show but not great by any means. The sort of show I put on while I'm reading blogs and such.

Not sure about that I think many people where hooked on Sherlock (the BBC one) by the first episode.

How does one example ever prove or disprove anything?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterexample

A counterexample is only definitive proof when opposing an absolute.

I was only responding to the parent question.

Sherlock episodes are also like 2-3 normal episodes in length. They are each essentially mini movies

Isn't Sherlock more akin to movies than TV episodes at this point? Each season is quite like little trilogies.

"incentive problem with binging"

The user may potentially watch everything they want within a couple weeks and then unsubscribe. They would make more money if they were forced to be subscribed for longer in order to finish shows.

>forced to be subscribed for longer in order to finish shows.

Which is exactly how HBO has been able to keep me subscribed for months on end. I thought I'd cancel it after Silicon Valley finished. HBO comes out with good content every week to keep me hooked.

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