Location and a Startup's Likelihood of Success | Hacker News Reader

Location and a Startup's Likelihood of Success

codingvc.com

28 pointslpolovets6 comments

Now we just need a follow-up post from someone at AngelList explaining how their "signal" algorithm strongly weights proximity to tech hub and we will come full circle.

Not sure how much significance this particular study has (but maybe), but I still have one general within-SFBA question:

WTF did San Jose do wrong over the past 40 years or so? It was at one point #1. I get that companies have become more software/etc. based vs. manufacturing, but there's nothing that inherent to Mountain View to make it better than, say, San Jose. Proximity to Stanford could be a factor, especially for Palo Alto, but it still seems like San Jose really screwed up somehow.

I wonder if part of it is that it's easier and easier for young people to start companies. 15 years ago, you needed to raise millions of dollars and buy a bunch of hardware, and (I think) founders tended to skew a bit older. Now that lots of founders are in their 20s, the tech center has shifted a lot toward the places they want to live -- and San Jose is not where the cool kids want to be. To be honest, neither is Mountain View, which is why SF has gotten so much startup mind share over the last 10 years.

The "cool kids" explanation also points to why from Sunnyvale/Santa Clara southward you find a lot of big enterprise companies. You know, the ones that sell from $3bn or go public but you've never heard of them.

Broadly speaking for 2015 ...

San Jose is just a sprawling city with a pathetic downtown.

Palo Alto and Mountain View are near Stanford U., govt. money and investors.

San Francisco is where young dudes go to get laid.

Beyond 2015, the price of real estate is so high that I don't know what the future holds. Any house from SF to MV is now over $1 million, and in PA and Los Altos above $2 million.

The title should have been: "Location within the US and a Startup's Likelihood of Success".

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