10 Ways We Get the Odds Wrong -- Our brains are terrible at assessing modern risks | Hacker News Reader

10 Ways We Get the Odds Wrong -- Our brains are terrible at assessing modern risks

psychologytoday.com

33 pointslylia15 comments

Number four explains fear of flying, too. When you fly in a plane, you are completely at the whim of the pilot and various crews. In a car, your actions make a difference. I think that's a bigger factor than "spectacular and unlikely."

Salmonella doesn't kill you - it just makes you wish you were dead.

Well I have had bad food poisoning. I did indeed wish for death.

Reminds me of the book - Blink, which explores the power of the trained mind to make split second decisions, the ability to think without thinking, or in other words using instinct. It describes our ability to gauge what is really important from a very narrow period of experience. In other words, spontaneous decisions are often as good as - or even better than - carefully planned and considered ones.

Yeah, Malcom Gladwell is a great psychological economist.

The questions at the bottom of the article are fascinating-- it really puts things in perspective.

Gladwell is a journalist who happens to cite a lot of social science stuff, not a psychologist or an economist.

I like his writing, but it tends to end up feeling like lots of anecdotes strung together without too much actual meat, sometimes.

What difference does it make what kind of ist he is?

Gladwell is an excellent writer, but he does overstate his case in that book to serve the interest of a very good, gut-level story. I didn't read the above to ding him - just to set the record straight.

I feel very negative in this direction about Psychology Today - interesting stories, but even less, much less, below the surface. Gladwell at least gives footnotes and references actual researchers. He serves a critical function and serves it very well. PT reads more like a tabloid of science journalism.

Regarding this article, people have won the Nobel Prize in Economics after showing, at least twenty-five years ago, how bad we are at judging real-life risks. The scientists doing that work? Psychologists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory

Makes it easier to suspend critical thinking.

In terms of his writing? Not much, as he seems to research his subjects fairly well, and interview people that are psychologists or economists or whatever, when he needs that kind of material.

The statement was inaccurate though.

His stuff is great, but it does read like that. Its like you are reading a whole lot of little weekend magazine articles thrown together. The content is great though, its just the style (and consequently, I never read his stuff as a book, more just a little at a time).

He describes himself an an economist all the time.

I don't believe that. He seems too responsible to say that - ever. If so, I'd like to see one quote from him saying exactly that.

My sister's friend is an Emergency Room physician. After talking to her, you would be scared to leave your apartment and do something risky like crossing a city street.

hmm

Reply on news.ycombinator.com