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Comment by narrator | Hacker News Reader

I think the average American is going to be shocked in the next couple of years when the rest of the world passes us by. The technological capability of developing nations has increased rapidly. Our rate of technological progress is slowing down. For example, Intel is having difficulty scaling down process technology past 14nm while the fabs in China are catching up at 28nm.

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To your specific point about semiconductor fabrication: It's much harder to scale 28nm down to 14nm than to go from say... 65nm to 32nm. Quantum effects become much more prevalent. All sorts of new materials and technologies must be used. Even with Qualcomm's help[1], SMIC's 28nm process was delayed by a year. The first chips came off the line last month, putting them 5 years behind modern fab tech. Though companies like SMIC are playing catch-up, it will take a lot of R&D to get to where Intel is today. Speaking of R&D: Intel's R&D budget is five times SMIC's revenue.[2]

To your more general point about surpassing the US in "the next couple of years": I seriously doubt it. The US has many advantages that we take for granted. Developing countries have a huge problem with brain drain. Many of their most talented citizens immigrate to the US or EU. The US has relatively little corruption. It has a large, wealthy domestic market. It has the most prestigious universities. Lastly, the US has plenty of capital and a culture of entrepreneurship. We're so used to these things that we hardly even notice them. But for developing countries, these are massive issues.

1. http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1322988

2. Last quarter, Intel spent $3 billion on R&D. SMIC's revenue for the same quarter was $547 million: http://www.smics.com/eng/press/press_releases_details.php?id...

> For example, Intel is having difficulty scaling down process technology past 14nm while the fabs in China are catching up at 28nm.

It's much, much easier to "catch up" than to actually innovate.

With the education system and culture in China and India there's no way they're going to pass us by. Those are countries where having an original thought and arguing with your teacher gets you kicked out of school.

Hell, in China you need a license to put up a website.

China has plenty of "original thought[s]". I bet India does too. I always find it amazing that in the U.S. we tend to judge other countries as being "unoriginal" or "lacking creativity", simply because we are better right now. We forget to factor in that we are the wealthiest country in the world, have been for hundreds of years. We have the best resources, and that create a compounding effect for our accomplishments. Not to mention that a lot of our original ideas likely come from specifically China and India.

He talks about the culture of those countries. If you managed a typical Indian worker all you would ever hear is "yes, sir, I understood sir, it will get done, sir". Then an endless myriad of excuses and blame shifting and promises. People there are simply wired to always say "yes", never to question, never to doubt, never to criticize. I hope you can see why this might be a problem for transitioning to a "first world" economy, which relies on workers performing services, rather than standing on an assembly line.

Things in China are a bit different, but not quite. Chinese culture makes people very reluctant to admit they do not know something. In addition to that in Chinese culture it is the responsibility of the listener to understand what is being said, as opposed to western culture where it is the speaker's responsibility to make sure that he is understood. This makes transfer of knowledge en mass a very difficult task.

These simple, but fundamental differences are major hurdles for those economies going further.

I don't really know much of Indian culture, but I doubt it's as simple as a "yes sir" from your "typical Indian worker". That sounds like a gross oversimplification.

Again, I reiterate that while cultural effects can be there, I think it's much more prudent to look first for the historical and social causes of differences (wealth, resources, times of prosperity & peace vs war and famine). I'd bet money that those effects are orders of magnitude greater than any cultural effects. It's not as simple as you make it out.

As a point of reference, I want to again point out that immigrants from India and China to the U.S., carrying that same culture, have created much of the innovation from America over the past 20-30 years. I don't think that would've happened with typical "yes, sir, I understood sir, it will get one, sir" attitude, that you are placing on the "typical Indian".

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