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"Yes, but I haven't seen specific predictions of local chills, only post factum explanations."

This is actually a textbook difference between Climate and Weather. We're better at predicting the former than latter.

Are we? Is there a study that compares a sophisticated climate prediction model with a trivial model (one that simply adds the delta from the previous two years, for example) and demonstrates that in comparing each result to the real temperature the former gives a statistically significantly better result than the latter? That's the only way to know if we're any good at predicting climate. If you can point me to a study on this (or some review study) I'd really love to take a look.

> This is actually a textbook difference between Climate and Weather. We're better at predicting the former than latter.

According to the text book, warm days are climate while cold ones are weather.

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