1. The sports networks these companies have launched are all fledgling and receive a miniscule subscriber fee relative to ESPN.
2. All 3 broadcast their games over the air. Cordcutters undercutting (ugh) ESPN's ability to bid too much on NFL rights might bring down the price for NFL games a little bit, but there's still going to be plenty of demand not tied to cable subscriptions.
I'll concede that I don't know them any better than anyone else speculating on the matter, but I know for sure that all three networks get a per subscriber fee from cable companies like any other channel on cable.
The NFL has 15-16 games per week. Of those, 4 or 5 are on the local broadcast (three or four on CBS and FOX, one on NBC in the evening). If you want to access the other 11 games, you're reliant on cable-based access.
And the NFL is a unique animal here. MLB, NBA, and NHL are all completely reliant on cable-based delivery methods.
The sports networks these companies have launched are all fledgling and receive a miniscule subscriber fee relative to ESPN.
Fox Sports is not fledgling. They've been number 2 to ESPN for most of their history, and a huge number of NBA and MLB games are broadcast on Fox Sports.
Sports as an industry clearly needs cable subscriptions to support its current business model. And those cable subscriptions are reliant on people that don't watch sports paying for them anyway.
Eventually the sports industry is going to be forced, one way or another, to deliver a better user experience, and it's highly questionable whether or not they'll be able to generate the same revenue without the support of non fans that cable brings.
True, but you still have to pay the Sunday Ticket Premium of 300.00 or whatever it is now for the year. DirecTv paid 12b for it last time the contract was up, and my guess is they don't fully recoup in that in the Premium (part of the value is that it's DirecTv exlcusive). Whether the NFL can make as much selling the package (or a different one) a la carte is impossible to say.
Fox Sports is not fledgling. They've been number 2 to ESPN for most of their history, and a huge number of NBA and MLB games are broadcast on Fox Sports.
Fox Sports (and FSN aren't) but FS1, the non regional Fox network with the highest subscriber fee, is.
But I think I agree with you on a broad level that the sports other than football are going to have to rebuild their revenue structures (probably via direct access streaming) before the cable complex completely collapses. Football is largely, but not completeley insulated.