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Comment by Spooks | Hacker News Reader

Not sure that statement is true (I actually think it's almost the opposite). For example if programmers are replaced, who will create the programs for the machines? I imagine even after the first wave of robot overloads, they will want a version 2.0.

If you are a web designer, your connection is through a computer. Not sure robots can be creative (not yet anyways)

If you are a sales person, your connection will be through a phone (I don't think we are anywhere close to where a computer can make a judgement call based on speaking cues)

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Emulated minds and artificial intelligences will replace programmers eventually.

Even graphic design could be done by an AI running a genetic algorithm, with automated A/B testing as the fitness function.

Yes, programmer will be the last job.

Programmer will be the last job, but most programming jobs will be a part of the first wave to go. I can't tell you how many days I've felt like my job (wire up this API by googling then massaging a code sample) was such an obviously mechanical process than the AI needed to do it was not significantly more advanced than where we are now. I do not expect most of these jobs to last another two decades (at least by then ageism will have pushed me out anyways).

> Programmer will be the last job, but most programming jobs will be a part of the first wave to go.

No, because the first wave of white collar jobs to go has already been happening, and it is mostly middle management. (I suspect the next wave will be a lot of domain-specialized professionals in research/analytical roles -- but not so much solution design and implementation -- roles.)

I wonder how many programmers shouted doom and gloom when the first assembly language was created, when the first compilers came to take their jobs, or when the first framework stole their work?

Don't complain about boring, tedious boilerplate being removed, the removal just frees up our time for more interesting work.

The difference is that the market for different kinds of software products grew massively in the timeframe you're referencing, as did the complexity of software we were capable of creating. I don't expect these trends to continue. There will always be new technology to program for, but if automation takes over the gruntwork of development, which is the vast majority of it, market or complexity growth will not save it.

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