The iPad is a 4 star restaurant, my linux box is my kitchen. I like 4 star resturants and they are not evil (unless they have a 90% monopoly on the market [and the food is crappy (Microsoft circa 2001)] [Apple might do this to in which case they are evil for being a monopoly not for being closed]). They are closed. I can't go into the kitchen and make food. But I can be inspired by the food I enjoy there.
The idea of teaching children to learn to program using iPad apps is some what intriging, however, I would compare it to http://dreamdinners.com/main.php?static=index its not the same as buying a cook book and being in your own kitchen. Or going to culinary school.
So yes we will see people using the iPad to learn to program , possibly, but I think there will always be those who prefer to learn on an open platforms.
ps. I think you might like this graph :) http://chris.smeder.com/essays/3_stevejobs.htm