the only thing consistent in anything you said was mid-east instability. the mid-east has been unmanageable / unstable for several eons.
i'm talking way back during the industrial revolution. these decaying empires of the region in that time were ripe for the picking for the emerging powers of the world.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Russia_relations
check the history section, particularly the 1800s:
"In his later years of rule, Peter the Great found himself in a strong enough position to increase Russian influence more southwards in the Caucasus, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea at the cost of the two declining empires; the Safavid Empire and the Ottoman Empire."
Yeah, that's exactly the correlation I am pointing out. Guess who started really blowing up ~2 years ago? ISIS.
More instability = less control over oil resources by the sovereign = cheaper oil for everyone else
Decrease the oil price, and you increase demand for oil.
Increase the demand for oil, and you increase the demand for the dollar.
Increase demand for the dollar and you increase its value. Basic economics.
6/7 of the richest companies in the world in terms of revenue are oil companies, and oil is primarily traded in dollars. You'll notice that when a country starts trying to sell oil in something other than the dollar, they go on the NATO shit list: i.e. Iraq, Iran, Venezuela.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency#Currencies_used_...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_r...
"War is a matter not so much of arms as of money." -Thucydides