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Or maybe the markets already priced that in...

There's also major political tensions with the Saudi's and Iran. Some have predicted that if a war were to break out oil would rush back to $100 per barrel. Also, Iran must first past nuclear inspections before they are able to lift the ban.

>Also, Iran must first past nuclear inspections before they are able to lift the ban.

This could happen pretty soon:

>"Implementation of JCPOA will finish in the next seven days," he said.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35285095

Which is pretty scary; that gives some already volatile countries massive incentives to have a war. Humans are good enough at coming up with reasons on their own without paying them to do it.

If I was Iran, would I want to come online now? Or ride-out the bottoming of the market until Saudi Arabia implodes and its rulers hastily depart to their apartments in Paris.

On the other hand, one has to time production to ramp-up before renewables become too dominant. Interesting calculus.