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Comment by Tuna-Fish | Hacker News Reader

Sorry, but there's a saying in investing: "Right but early is wrong. Right but late is wrong."

Any fool can make a very long list of predictions that will all turn out to be correct, even in the stock market, as long as he doesn't have to give them a timeline. Plenty of people saw the housing crash, for example, and plenty of them understood that certain banks were underwater, and regardless of their actions, they were going to go under. However, just knowing that isn't actually worth anything -- a short position carries a heavy premium in interest, and in the famous words of Keynes: "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

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In your 'sayings' early and late are ambiguous. As far as investing is concerned being right in a prediction means you profited, so the early-late error bar is defined by the time in which you could profit by your prediction. Applying this same rationale here the early-late error bar is harder to define, since profit is not clear and somewhat subjective. So taking some liberties with early-late and right-wrong is I feel appropriate.

Taking into consideration that these predictions are 5+ years old I think they are pretty good. He clearly spotted several trends whose future significance was at the time not obvious. If someone started a business believing one of these trends had promise it is possible that the business would have been successful. I do feel that for what he was trying to accomplish being early or late by a couple of years or off on a detail but correct in spirit is not significant.

Also, I think it is important to add that making predictions like these is very important becuase the future develops from our perceptions of what it will be.

Security prices have two basic outcomes: "up" and "down." Usually they fluctuate, so almost any call will "eventually" be proven correct. Sporting events are also mostly binary outcomes, so "the Cubs will reach the World Series" will probably be right if given 200 years.

But with technology predictions, there's an almost infinite set of outcomes, so being right in direction but not timing is significant. For instance, someone who says "Little Rock, Arkansas will win the Super Bowl within 5 years" will look pretty smart even if it takes 6 years for Little Rock to (very unexpectedly) get an NFL franchise and 9 years to reach the Super Bowl.

Granted, technology predictors can use also use some tricks to narrow the possibility space in their favor.

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