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Comment by creshal | Hacker News Reader

I asked our Tesla rep the same when we made a test drive. He reassured us that it won't be a problem under warranty, because Tesla replaces all battery failures for free, and "who would drive a car for more than five years anyway? Just get a new one when the warranty expires."

We thanked him for his time and did not choose a Tesla.

(That was a few years ago, nowadays it's eight years. But still…)

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This is pretty normal for Luxury cars - I recall my wife getting pitched on a Range Rover and when she asked about gas mileage the salesman response was if you are worried about the gas cost this is not the car for you. But also the idea that you would keep a luxury car for more the length of the lease is generally understood(I thought) to be crazy you always trade in for the new and shiny...

Well, if I was buying a Range Rover I would absolutely go for either the V8 diesel or Supercharged 5.0L petrol. Seriously, if you spend so much money on the car, I wouldn't bat an eyelid at the running costs. I had a 4.4L V8 Discovery 3 and that thing did like 12mpg. Would never swap it for anything else, it was such a pleasure to drive.

> when she asked about gas mileage the salesman response was if you are worried about the gas cost this is not the car for you.

New world. I worry about gas mileage because of the impact to the environment - not because of the cost. I want a highly reliable, luxury performance car but I want it with a minimal cost to the environment.

"If you are worried about the environment, a range rover is not the car for you"

There are definitely many like you, but I think wanting a Range Rover negates that. It's a big beefy car with off-roading and powerful engine features that I doubt 90% of the owners use. Gas mileage is a cost of those features.

> who would drive a car for more than five years anyway? Just get a new one when the warranty expires.

That sounds ridiculous to me but it's probably a pretty common sentiment with people who spend 100k on a car, considering there are lots of people buying 25k cars who do the same, despite it probably not being a wise financial decision.

Well, here in UK you structure the lease in such a way you pay 50% of the car's value over 3 years and then get a new one at the end(and just carry on paying). For example you can have a brand new Nissan Juke for like 150 pounds a month. If you make a decent wage it's crazy not to buy new.

Cars have steep deprecation over the first two years. After that, deprecation flattens out. When you continuously lease every two to three years, you're paying far more depreciation expense than if you kept the car longer or bought used.

It's still a value judgement. If you value having a new car every two to three years, which also means you won't be doing maintenance other than oil changes, then you might be willing to pay the extra money.

Yes, luxury cars are as much a fashion statement as they are transportation. Most owners will want to stay current and will trade the car after a few years even if nothing is wrong with it.

Owners just build in the monthly lease or loan payment to their cash flow budget.

I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum, I only buy used cars for cash and have not had a car payment in almost 20 years.

Don't forget that in the US (and UK, possibly) many of these cars are leased as part of senior employees' compensation packages.

But still what? How many gas engines and transmissions in comparable luxury cars will last 8+ years without significant cost? The Tesla warranty is 8 years but the batteries will last significantly longer they will just have less than 80% of max storage (I believe that is the warranty threshold).

The tesla powertrain as a whole should last a million miles or maybe more with nothing more than routine maintenance and some battery pack changes which will drop in cost over time. If battery pack changes get down to $5K (which seems very possible), and battery packs are usable for let's say 150K miles, then you get a car with a power train that runs for a million miles for about $45K in maintenance (add a bit more for tires and other incidentals) and then subtract the cheaper electric fuel cost. This is less than the cost to keep the power train running for a Mercedes S class for one million miles (which will probably require 4 or 5 transmissions and 4 or 5 motors to get to a million miles).

But realistically people don't repair 150K+ mile S classes because it would cost $30-40K to replace the tranny/engine plus all the other engine things while the car would be worth very little, so they junk it and buy a new car which means the cost of owning an S class for one million miles is more realistically the cost of owning 5 or 6 S classes.

An S-class drivetrain will last a lot longer than 150K miles if it's given its proper routine maintenance (fluid changes etc). 300K-500K miles not unheard of. Not to say that other parts of the car, e.g. climate control and other fancy gizmos will last that long, but Tesla will be no different in that regard.

An S-class may last that long, but nearly every other car in that segment won't. I think in that regard, Tesla will continue to carry an edge.

What would the total maintenance cost be over that 300k-500k period?

An SClass drivetrain costs a small fortune to maintain. In general, people who purchase a used S class are wanting the status at steep depreciation prices, and as a rule arent willing to pay the price of routine maintenance.

I see both sides of the argument. Buying a good used car for cash is probably a better investment financially. I personally don't trust the secondary car market to be honest with me that a car has been taken care of properly. Maintenance records can be and are faked. I generally don't mind paying more to have a newer and usually more reliable car with a warranty. I do usually drive them until they're paid off plus some time span, but in general its not very long, 1-2 years max.

In 8 years you'll be able to upgrade to a battery pack that's half the weight, which means it can be lower capacity, increasing your miles per dollar, while giving you increased range versus when you bought the car.

Because it will be smaller it could theoretically even be a free upgrade, depending on the recycling value of the old pack.

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