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Comment by reddytowns | Hacker News Reader

If you took one expert and faced him against a room full of experts who all together decided on the next move, who would win?

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The one expert, because the others would not be able to reach a decision on which move to play.

In fact, no. A big group of average experts appears to be better than a single super expert. This is the principal justification for the success of AI in oil prospective (https://books.google.fr/books?id=6DNgIzFNSZsC&pg=SA30-PA5&lp...)

Counterpoint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World

I think a key missing component to crowd success on real expert knowledge (as opposed to trivia) is captured by the concept of prediction markets. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) The experts who are correct will make more money than the incorrect ones and eventually drive them out of the market for some particular area.

That's no counterpoint because the World team (of which I was a member) was made up of boobs on the internet, not players of Kasparov's strength, which was the premise of the question you responded to.

The easy thing about combining AI systems is that they don't argue. They don't try to change the opinion of the other experts. They don't try to argue with the entity that combines all opinions, every AI expert gets to say his opinion once.

With humans on the other hand, there will always be some discussion. And some human experts may be better at persuading other human experts or the combining entity.

I think it would be an interesting thing to try after they beat the number 1 player. Gather the top 10 (human) Go players and let them play as a team against AlphaGo.

This reminds me of the story of the Game of the Century, with Go Seigen's shinfuseki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_go_games#.22The_Game_o...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinfuseki

This is nonsense. To combine AI systems requires a mechanism to combine their evaluations. The most effect way would be a feedback system, where each system uses evaluations from other systems as input to possibly modify its own evaluation, with the goal being consensus. This is simply a formalization of argumentation -- which can be rational; it doesn't have to be based on personal benefit. And generalized AI systems may well some day have personal motivations, as has been discussed at length.

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