Buuut I guess they could. I guess it just kind of looks like the explosive hiring you see sometimes when a company has projected huge growth but then falls flat and realizes it has way too many employees :(
Maybe, are those 600 people there to fight fires and work on tickets, or adding product features?
I'm not an expert - just learning more about this myself over the last few months, but it sounds to me like the investment style you're talking about exists inside the world of private equity.
They're not playing the venture game - it's a different model. Buy and hold for either cashflow/dividends, or do some financial/managerial engineering and flip the asset.
Outside of the world of Venture Capital, there's a HUGE spectrum of investors out there doing every kind of investment - just gotta tune into it I've found.
(Great place to start is a podcast called PE Funcast - seems to me they've been doing this type of investing.)
Say A round wanted 100x. B round 10X. C round 7x. D round 5x. That will bring the total expected return to around 8B. However I am sure C and D would not mind a 3X or 2X, while B would probably settled happily for a 5X.
Regardless, once investors pay for growth, they require it, in order to be paid out on their bets and remain profitable.
how well did that work out for basecamp?
They could have been the next slack if they had not stuck to their stupid philosophy of staying small.
But we are specifically talking about dropbox here.
I am sure they were not exactly aiming to "be small" raising million of dollars in multiple investment rounds.
Why would an asset class like medium-size technology companies pursuing highly competitive cut-throat markets, requiring long lock-ups of capital (Dropbox was founded in 2007, so someone has been sitting on those shares for 9 years already) be more attractive than similar dividend-flowing asset classes like real estate or energy MLPs?
Are the dividends so outsized that Dropbox is basically swimming in cash and the yield is much better than I can get with similar asset classes? Do they have a stronger foothold in the market with expected longevity to out-survive an office tower, apartment complex or gas pipeline? Is it likely to attract better talent than Valley's established public companies (GOOG, AAPL, FB) or Valley's hyper-growth startups with IPO potential (Uber), and that better talent will out-compete the rivals on products, execution and market share (and, as corollary, fall under "dividend growth" umbrella, in theory allowing me to buy larger yields at substantial discount)?
Dropbox would have to compensate investors for (a) lack of liquidity and (b) for being in technology software market, known to be particularly unforgiving with its "winner takes all" mentality. Its peers would be highly risky single purpose private REITs (think casinos and fracking companies in North Dakota).
To accommodate that compensation the yields would likely have to be in the double-digits range, so let's say with profits of $20 mln of which $10 mln is allocated to dividends the expected valuation would be in the range of $60-100 mil (10-15% expected yield which seems reasonable in this rate environment with the type of risk described).
If Dropbox is delighting its customers and no longer interested in the lightning-fast one-uppsmanship of enterprise software/storage, then it can trim costs and pay an attractive dividend, sure.
But my dropbox was super slow in Japan, MS Office products keep spawning conflicting copies, Photoshop randomly pauses batch processing because of sync file locking, and they are shutting down Carousel.
So I am moving to Google Drive. All the frustrations above are not unique to me. Dropbox even has a Japanese web site. But this is what destroys consumer confidence. There were trivial complaints on their support site regarding speed issues and Carousel issues with pages of responses. It is the loyal customers that bother to post, yet the impression everyone is getting is seriously, WTF are they doing?
You can't have it known that you are healthily funded, have hundreds of engineers, not free, and NOT care.
The only reason I use Dropbox is that it is not made by either Apple, Microsoft or Google, so I can sort of trust that there will be client support for all platforms.
Also, I don't want any more features. Same with Evernote. I just want to keep notes, and it works quite well for that.
Too bad the investor pressure will likely make each of these products worse.