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"everything seems to be running on stock Ubuntu VMs nowadays"

Except if one is developing desktop software. Windows is pretty dominant at desktop, especially when considering enterprise, CAD and so on.

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I have no actual evidence for this, but I think it's reasonable to believe that within 10 years about 95% of enterprise software will run in a browser. There'll still be niches where it isn't the case (CAD being an example) but for everything else, it's web technologies all the way down.

Have a look at OnShape. That future is coming faster than some people think.

Online business models are not yet foolproof, though. As I understand it Tinkercad basically went busted a few years ago because people did not want to pay for an online tool and eventually Autodesk bought it. Please correct me on the details. Also, I have no data either way to show would Tinkercad done any better as a desktop software.

(https://www.tinkercad.com/)

OnShape is certainly an exciting experiment. If they pull through financially it will be pretty strong signal, IMO.

Even CAD is moving to the browser. I saw Autodesk showing their CAD project in the browser in a job fair.

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