Heck, if they didn't lay off people, they'd still have punch-card machine cleaners and even cheese slicer designers (they used to sell those way back in the day).
Heck, if they didn't lay off people, they'd still have punch-card machine cleaners and even cheese slicer designers (they used to sell those way back in the day).
You may be right, but a good sign for whom, exactly? For the people who lost their jobs? For shareholders? For fans of IBM the company?
Sure, yes, I agree that IBM probably has to shed people in order to stay competitive. However, it's not the fault of the people who are being affected by this, as by and large they were not responsible for IBM's decision to get more and more into support and services.
(an aside: it's not clear those are the people being affected, I'm just responding to the parent comment)
Instead, I would say a better discussion is: why is it that when IBM made a bet that did not play out, that they have cut people's severance benefits signifcantly? Why is it that we treat this as a necessary evil, instead of something to be disappointed about? Why are we not holding IBM up to be responsible for the well-being of their workers?
I'm not arguing that this isn't something that IBM should have done. I am arguing that we shouldn't talk about layoffs as a "good sign", and I think we should try to keep in mind the lives of the people affected.
For IBM. It's good when you consider the alternative where a great company is slowly destroyed and everyone loses their jobs.
Like so many other big corps, IBM did some questionable things because of bad management and got into avoidable trouble.
Now the innocent employees - the ones who didn't get a chance to steer the ship - are being thrown into the ocean.
In a sane world, those employees would sue the board for some of its decisions. Those decisions may have been good for the short term interests of the shareholders, but clearly they weren't good for the long term interests of the company, or of patient shareholders who took the long view.
Bad management is a plague in tech. We've seen a long succession of big corps make the most incredibly surreal, bizarre, dysfunctional decisions, and then show wide-eyed "Who? Us?" surprise when layoffs become necessary because the corps crash into the rocks.
The usual justification that "shareholders win" is bullshit. They don't. No one does, except sometimes - in the short term only - the bad management itself.
How does that even work? I understand if there is discrimination, or they didn't get paid for their work but sue them for betting on services for such a long time? Yeah, I don't see how that works. Moreover, didn't most of those employees make the same bet by getting hired to provide consulting services.
Besides, employees are not the owners of the company (unless they are also major share holders). Shareholders can potentially sue, no doubt. But not sure about employees.
When you are covered by a collective bargaining agreement and contract, it happens all of the time. In my city, when the administration introduced unsafe conditions and unpopular schedule changes the firefighters union picketed the home of the mayor and fire chief, and successfully sued.
A friend worked for a manufacturing company where the Union sued over chronic and egregious mismanagement. Unfortunately, the management wanted the company to fail and dragged things out until bankruptcy.
Unions are all about tenure. When the shit hits the fan, the young people lose. Pay scale is generally based on tenure as well.
For IBM. For shareholders. For people who are not laid off and still work there.
> it's not the fault of the people who are being affected by this, as by and large they were not responsible for IBM's decision to get more and more into support and services.
Is it surprising that IBM is not a flat organization / meritocracy where regular employees get to vote on corporate strategy. Yes it is not their fault. So what should IBM do? They can provide severance packages, extra benefits maybe. Try to re-train some people perhaps. But can't keep everyone till retirement just to provide jobs (That is what Uncle Sam does).
> Why is it that when IBM made a bet that did not play out, that they have cut people's severance benefits signifcantly?
But it did play out. Services was bringing a huge amount of money during late 90s early to mid 2000s. It just doesn't anymore
> Why are we not holding IBM up to be responsible for the well-being of their workers?
We are posting on HN right. This startup land. Every 9 out of 10 startups will die. Are you holding them just as responsible? Or is there some implicit assumption that if you work for IBM then you'll be good till retirement.
> I am arguing that we shouldn't talk about layoffs as a "good sign",
I still argue it is a good sign. It is good for some parties (I enumerated a few above) and it really sucks for those getting laid off. No denying that. Hopefully they could have extra time, severance packages and so on to help.
How about this, what would you do if you ran IBM and you ended up with 50000 employees trained to do something that just doesn't bring profit anymore?
this should not be regarded as a baseline truth nor a desirable transitional state. it is a bad idea that we must not succumb to.
companies are multi-faceted entities with many different stakeholders. the workers are a 100% necessary stakeholder and the company cannot operate without them.
What's noxious is the whole idea of "stakeholders", as if working somewhere gives you some kind of ownership. If you want to own your job you need to be self employed.
If I hire someone to cut my grass is he now a "stakeholder" who needs to be consulted when I sell my house?
a company is an organization of humans. a house is an object.
You purchase a service from the lawn care vendor. You are their customer. You are not the employer of the guy who mows the lawn. That guy is either self-employed or he might be the employee of a lawncare company.
Oh, THANK YOU for the scraps of information you're about to impart.
>a company is an organization of humans.
No it isn't. A company (or corporation) is a legal fiction in which the owners are pooling resources to make money. It may do nothing and have no full-time employees. It may own other companies who do nothing and have no full-time employees.
The "organization of humans" isn't the company. Those people are employees who work for the company. I know it's in fashion for CEOs to say "we are the company", but that's a polite fiction you tell people to motivate them. If you have any doubt this is true, watch what happens when the company doesn't need them any more.
>You purchase a service from the lawn care vendor. You are their customer. You are not the employer of the guy who mows the lawn. That guy is either self-employed or he might be the employee of a lawncare company.
While that's true from a legal perspective, it's a meaningless distinction. I'm paying the guy to do a job. If I stop paying him to do a job, it has an impact on his life. In leftist parlance that makes him a "stakeholder", by which they mean he ought to have some input into the decisions I make as the owner.
> No it isn't. A company (or corporation) is a legal fiction in which the owners are pooling resources to make money.
A company is a generic term in English for any (particularly business) organization. It includes things that do not have distinct legal identity from the persons comprising the organization.
A corporation is specifically a particular form of company, distinguished by distinct legal personhood and other particular legal treatments.
AI is already doing the same thing for many white collar jobs.
The company of the future will indeed operate without workers.
But they are not the same group of employees though ;-) that's the point.
> The discussion we're having here is because there seem to be no repercussions to their failure.
Ok and how should we punishing all the failed startups though? Who is holding them responsible for their failure?
> it's because they failed to train them
We should try. But in general this is like the idea of "Why don't we just retrain all the coal miners to write web apps?" The reality is that you can't retrain everyone.
Some of the programming stuff seems easy to programmers for example, because well, we forgot the time when we didn't know it yet. But it is not something you can take a few night classes and read a book or two and get to writing back-end services.
What do you mean? There are massive layoffs, a falling share price and lots of bad press. What other "repercussions" should there be? Should the government come in and shut the place down? Should it force IBM to keep all employees?
Again, what sort of "repercussions" should a company have when they make bad business decisions? The shareholders and employees have suffered, that's the punishment.
> They can provide severance packages, extra benefits maybe. Try to re-train some people perhaps. But can't keep everyone till retirement just to provide jobs (That is what Uncle Sam does).
Right, but they cut their severance packages. So clearly they're trying to contain costs. So yes, that's also a good sign for IBM the corporation, less good for their employees.
> Services was bringing a huge amount of money during late 90s early to mid 2000s. It just doesn't anymore
Now we have to step into the realm of the possible. Would it have been possible for IBM to look at their services backlog and contract timeframes, churn/retention rates and a few years ago say, "Shit, these contracts don't work out from an economic perspective, and maybe we should start to attrition out these deals because they're not going to work out long term?"
Maybe someone did (in fact, I'm almost certain someone did somewhere). But I'd also bet that some execs somewhere decided to keep going, keep signing money-losing contracts, that everyone started to live a lie so that they can get promoted, keep their bonuses, etc.
And now that they've now decided it was a mistake- the company doesn't pay the price (reduced severance), it's the workers who do.
> We are posting on HN right. This startup land. Every 9 out of 10 startups will die. Are you holding them just as responsible? Or is there some implicit assumption that if you work for IBM then you'll be good till retirement.
So, I've had to lay people off at a startup. It's terrible. We went out of our way to take care of them, including offering long severance packages, and cutting salaries and bonuses at an exec level to mitigate the layoffs. It sucks, but that was our obligation.
And I do hold startups somewhat responsible, but its also a different scenario - early stage startups are a known risk.
The big point I want to highlight is that I believe employers have an obligation to look after their employees, and when as a corporation they made a bet that didnt' work out, or had a profitable business that is no longer profitable, the ethical obligation is on them to look after those employees.
> How about this, what would you do if you ran IBM and you ended up with 50000 employees trained to do something that just doesn't bring profit anymore?
Treat them with dignity. Pay them a lot of money based on their time of service. Recognize that we should see this as a failure as an organization. Never refer to it as a "good thing"
EDIT: I also would have tried to "get out in front of it" - 50,000 people's jobs don't become redundant overnight other than through wishful thinking on leadership's part.
You are probably right about that.
> the company doesn't pay the price (reduced severance), it's the workers who do.
Well it did didn't it? You mean shareholders? The stock went down for a few years in a row.
> or had a profitable business that is no longer profitable, the ethical obligation is on them to look after those employees.
> How about this, what would you do if you ran IBM and you ended up with 50000 employees trained to do something that just doesn't bring profit anymore?
Because it was "looking after them" for a while perhaps? The age of large service consultancies maybe over. But they still have those people getting IBM salaries. Those are not Facebook salaries probably but they are not puny either. At some point it would have to start laying people off. And it was laying them off and also hiring new ones. That is why it looked flat. But now it probably hired enough new people and stopped. While is still has to lay off others.
> Treat them with dignity. Pay them a lot of money based on their time of service.
I agree with that. Hopefully they do. I don't know if they will.
> Never refer to it as a "good thing"
The "good thing" for not for the employees, it is for the companies and for those that work there, for shareholders. That is a lot of parties for which it is a benefit.
Managers shouldn't sit down with those getting laid of and say "I have good news". That is not what I trying to say.
Everything you said was good, but this was what I liked the most.
Management lives in the la-la land of denial for years and years. And then BOOM! Like a bolt out of the blue.
That's management failure, they should have seen it coming, and reacted to it, years ago. It's one of the most important aspects of their job.
Apparently, if you are IBM, you fire them and hire H1Bs
A much more balanced system would be something like, for each executive:
- Your base pay is $51 million.
- If you FAIL at your task, YOU OWE THE COMPANY $50 million.
- If you succeed, you receive an extra $20 million. If you choose to split $15 million of this reward with employees in terms of stock however, your portion of the stock will be doubled.
That would put some skin in the game. And if a failing executive is forking over most of his millions back to the company, they could probably avoid quite a few layoffs. And if the executive doesn’t fail and has a direct incentive to share success with employees, the workers would be even more loyal to the cause.
And really, I think saving 10 jobs or 5 jobs is still fine, if that were the number.
No single person can be so good at a job that it warrants sending hundreds more out the door. Any company that thinks this should try an experiment: fire the executive, ask any employee at all in the company to take over the job for 1/20th the salary and see if the outcome is measurably worse.
Now granted it's not if you fail at your task you owe a company money but you don't get it, the owe a company money could happen it's usually common in some countries (UK for example) where the CEO gets a "loan" for X amount which is spread out over some years, it's again not usually to put skin in the game but to lock a CEO to the company, the CEO change at Sage about a year ago had a loan component to it.
No sane person would take a CEO job with that type of compensation clause. While the CEO bears responsibility, the world doesn't make it easy.
1. Today's stock market doesn't reward long-term disruptive thinking that isn't guaranteed to be a sure bet. Heck, and there are no sure bets anyway. The stock market rewards profits here and now that also extrapolate to good future profit trends. Why screw up a good thing to grab something unproven? That's why BlackBerry's stock was so high as the iPhone was coming out. CEOs are indirectly pressured to not take risks. If they do and they fail, they deserve to pay a huge penalty? Exactly what could Blockbuster have done with all of its investments into real estate and retail employees to win against the Internet? There is no scenario where they could have won without decimating everything the company used to do.
2. Black swan events are extremely unpredictable precisely because * nobody* sees them coming. If I ran an ice harvesting business, how could I have predicted the invention of freon? Once I learned about freon, how should I have responded with all of my investments made into labour and equipment for sawing ice out of frozen lakes? There aren't many situations where a win is easy if an entire industry gets destroyed because of some black swan event.
3. All of the above goes double when the new CEO is supposed to lead a turnaround. They negotiate their parachutes first so that they can focus 100% of their energy on saving the company instead of worrying about themselves. It's why on airplanes they explain to you to put your own oxygen mask on first and then help others. You can't help others if you yourself are in trouble. Not to mention, turnarounds are not fun. They're also paid for stress and the need to make often uncomfortable decisions where they must play the villain.
Wait, what? $51M salary, if I fail I give back $50M? I pocket at least $1M risk-free. Sign me up. That's more than most people make total throughout their entire lives.
Besides that, the issue is that these decisions aren't made in a vacuum, and the rewards are too short-term to make it really viable. The CEO will consider the offer and compare it to other opportunities out there. Free agents always have options if they're that good. It happens in sports, and it happens in business. So you have candidates comparing options, and those options drive up the price. If the price is driven up because options exist, any sane person would be a fool to not take the best price if the opportunity also fits right. "Sorry, your offer is the best offer, but I'm going to turn it down because this other company wants me to give back 98% of my salary if I fail. That's more my cup of tea." I don't deny there can be non-monetary factors that may be more important than money in these decisions. But I'm talking about an all-else-equal decision. Especially when it's a turnaround situation. Nobody wants a turnaround job unless they enjoy pain. The money is to compensate for that pain. Nortel had a really tough time finding its last couple of CEOs. In Canada, it was known as the CEO job that nobody wanted. How do you attract someone for that kind of job unless you guarantee them nice money?
Finally, the market does reward for the short-term. When IBM made the big switch to go all-in into services with the purchase of PwC Consulting, mass global hiring for labour-intensive work, and so on, they opened up a huge profit tap. Palmisano was hugely rewarded for growing this decade-long windfall. He parachuted into retirement with a very nice package. Never mind that the strategy worked for only a decade and created a big mess of financial misallocation that his successor would need to clean up. Should he have been able to predict that IT was changing and that this huge IT services workforce that he had hired would turn into a huge albatross that Rometty would need to slay in order to ensure IBM remains a relevant company? Maybe. Is it fair that Rometty is left dealing with the albatross while Palmisano is happily and richly retired? Yeah, Rometty was part of executing that services strategy as a senior executive before she became CEO (in fact, she was apparently the one responsible for integrating the PwC acquisition), but the question stands. Under the proposed scheme, why is Palmisano rewarded and Rometty not? Rometty is dealing with the fallout of a changing industry overshadowing what made perfect sense to Palmisano at the time. They were hit by technological trends that they didn't predict well.
Compensation is a complex subject, especially at the executive level.
At the very least, you'd have to make the expected value of their compensation greater than it is today. So if they succeed they get an extra $60 million but if they fail they lose $50 million (with a baseline of $51 million). Then you would incentivize risk-taking CEOs.
Of course, that's not actually far off from what we have today: CEOs receive a majority of the compensation in stock, which does have risk. Maybe it would make sense to set the strike prices much more aggressively instead though.
If I was granted 100k shares at $10/share, even if market values it higher, it costs me something to excercise them up front, right?
The economy, so everybody. You're asking the wrong question, it isn't "Why is it a good sign that IBM has begun layoffs?" The question is "Why is it a good sign that IBM, a poor performer that is popularly believed to have misallocated resources, has begun layoffs?" It isn't a choice between IBM doing great, or doing layoffs; it is a choice between IBM continuing to do poorly and eventually imploding spectacularly, or doing layoffs. Of course layoffs don't mean a certain turn around for them, but the consequences for inaction are pretty certain.
As far as the fate of the individual employees: in the long run the vast majority will be better off. Either IBM didn't efficiently translate those employee's skills to profit, or there is inadequate demand for the skills and the employees have been shielded from that harsh reality. In the case of inefficiency (the most common case): if another company can derive more profit from the same skill - then they can also pay more. In the case of obsolete skills: unless IBM can, with a certainty, provide employment until the employee dies - they are assisting the employee in a game of retirement savings Russian roulette.
So that is the economics 101 explanation, but I've found it to be true. I've been through this twice, and in both cases I've come out the other side much better off.
So, are the worker bees accountable for the success of a company, or are they merely anonymous cogs? HN seems to like it both ways; when some executive or manager gets acclaim, we're quick to point that it's the regular employees doing the "real work" in the company. But when it goes south, we question what part they played in the thing, and point the blame elsewhere.
It isn't merely incompetent management that are responsible. And there's also a lot of bad luck involved. A plan was implemented, it didn't work; should the 10's of thousands of remaining workers suffer?
>Why is it that we treat this as a necessary evil, instead of something to be disappointed about?
It's both.
Any large technology company has to be.
> It's that it's grinding down into irrelevance
Maybe? Who knows. They hung for 100 some years. As an entity they've done some things right for that to happen.
I'm curious, not accusatory.
This is all financial engineering and next year---I predict---their revenue will be down again, but they will show still more profit.
If you are an independent software vendor who gets roped into part of an IBM deal, the first thing you should do is get them out of the loop and make contact with the real technical staff at the customer. Beats the hell out of playing telephone.
Buffet buying IBM goes completely against his philosophy buying tech so he'll sugar coat it not to look completely stupid.
Otherwise, it's just a very speculative assumption, repeated by many, that firing people must be good. Management must be acting in the company's best interests - they couldn't be biased or selfish or just making a mistake - and employees are generally a burden and a commodity.
I'd like to repost something maceo posted last year, that I saved:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9502757
Human labor is not a commodity.
This was the common sense amongst all working people for most of the 20th century. Samuel Gompers, maybe the most conservative labor leader of his time, said "You cannot weigh the human soul on the same scales as piece of pork." And working people, along with the management class for the most part, understood this to be an undeniable truth. In fact, this piece of common sense was enshrined into US law with the Clayton Act of 1914, which stated "The labor of a human being is not a commodity or article of commerce." But in the last 20 years, as capital has gained the firm upper hand, the common sense understanding has shifted towards the idea that labor is in fact a commodity.
The ideas behind the so-called "on-demand workforce" further solidify the notion that labor is a commodity. After all, you can order an uber ride just as easily as you can order vitamins online.
It's so pervasive that even I, someone born into a union family and a firm believer in the idea of worker solidarity, have to force myself to believe that labor is not a commodity. Why? The business class treated labor as expendable in 1915, just as they do in 2015. Why did working people understand this truth in 1915 but not today? I don't know.
I read a recently released sociology book earlier this year (going crazy looking for the title/author, can't find it), that posits millennials are far more likely than any recent generation to blame themselves for the problems they face. It's part of the reason that the self-help industry is bigger business than it's ever been. It's not always your fault. Our modern economy is built on rotten ideas like labor = commodity. If we want to do something about inequality, it's time that we subject fundamentally unjust ideas like these to a serious critique.
My cynical view (as another 'born into a union family' etc etc) is that, back then, enraged human souls could take out their anger on the material interests and personal safety of capital owners. A factory would burn, stock would get ruined, people would get physically threatened. That empowered workers and did a lot in making owners understand that humans are not tools that you can just put down when not needed.
Nowadays what you gonna do, burn a few laptops? Smash a few desks? Big deal. The owner or CEO responsible for directives is probably in another continent, essential business interests are in datacentres across the world. Unless you are an uber-skilled security professional, you simply have no significant recourse. You could lynch the redundancy managers sent to deal with you (as they are starting to do in France), but the owners will just hire a few more.
What this means is that, behind all our philosophy about Sharing Economies, Clouds and so on, the new model of work is really the Mechanical Turk: machine-mediated work distribution across an atomized workforce. Until we stop loving the machine, we will not stop this trend.
This is generationally very hard, because we have grown with these machines and we've seen them shape our world and our professions - how can we not like them? There is still so much to do, so many opportunities... We are going through an industrial revolution the likes of which had not been seen since the early 1800s, and we know those were not easy years for the common folk. It will take a few more generations to stabilize and get to grip with new social realities; it will take people who were born after machines stopped being novel, people who can consciously refuse and refute the model pushed upon them by networks, computers and centralized capital. It will probably not be millennials, but maybe their kids will be desperate enough to start considering real changes.
[1] https://www.wilmerhale.com/pages/publicationsandNewsDetail.a...
That's what it could mean, if this were some other company. You're right in saying that sometimes layoffs are an unpleasant but necessary part of some larger plan to refocus and turn the company around. But this is IBM we're talking about: there is no plan. There's not the slightest shred of evidence that there's a real mission underway to make them relevant again, a la "the new Microsoft". It's just an endless cycle of layoffs and stock buybacks until the whole thing winds up and just goes poof in a handful of dust. It'll take a while because IBM is still huge, but 2025 is my estimated date for when it's no more.
I would believe if you this was some newish 10-20 year old company. But they've been around for 100+ years. Some of it was luck, definitely, but I don't think it hung around on sheer luck for 100 years without a plan.
"Hope I die before I get old."