If the institutional inertia has a large part to play then a startup model would be very promising.
If the institutional inertia has a large part to play then a startup model would be very promising.
The startup people said their biggest problem was the NRC's regulatory model. All the current regulations are written for conventional reactors, with mandates that don't make sense for other reactor types.
If you want to build something else, you can, but you have to spend a couple hundred million dollars on up-front design. Once you have that, you submit it to the NRC, which only then decides whether you can move forward and actually run some experiments.
That's a pretty difficult environment for investors. The startup people said if we at least had a staged process, giving them some kind of hint about whether the NRC might approve the project before spending all that money, then they'd have a much easier time getting investment.
Because of all this, reactor startups have been going to other countries. Terrapower is building a demo in China, Thorcon in Indonesia. Terrestrial Energy's in Canada and has good things to say about regulators there. Congress is starting to move towards reforming the system, but it's slow going.
Some of these designs have dramatic safety and proliferation advantages. Some other interesting startups are Transatomic and Moltex.
We just isn't true.
The nuclear reactor technology that's been in use for the past 50 years has killed fewer people per kilowatt hour than any of solar, wind, or hydro power [1].
And despite all the proliferation concerns there are only 9 states states with nuclear weapons[2]. You don't magically get nuclear weapons by having domestic nuclear power.
1. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-de...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_we...
E.g. for a long time the waste was seen as a positive because it could go to weapons manufacture. Yes, you don't magically get weapons that way, but you get raw materials. Security and safety features for these plants must be designed accordingly to prevent accidents and to prevent theft of exceedingly dangerous materials. Especially after the end of the nuclear arms race meant most of this waste wasn't of use any more.
Reactors that produces much less dangerous waste can get away without a lot of those issues.
Likewise, a lot of the regulatory regime is based on reactors where a mistake or accident can lead to a runaway reaction, but are totally wasted on reactors that are "walk-away safe" because they require an outside, powered, neutron source to keep running for example.
Nuclear is amazingly safe, and I like to point that out to people too. But old-style nuclear reactors are that safe thanks to an array of extensive and expensive countermeasures against very real dangers, while at least some of the newer designs, assuming the various claims holds, are safe because the failure scenarios themselves are far more benign.
That's the point of these designs. A large proportion of the price of nuclear today is because of these safety features. Remove the need for a good chunk of them, and nuclear becomes far cheaper.
The IPCC's SRREN -- a review of carbon-neutral energy alternatives -- notes that nuclear has a good safety record, but is not safer than solar or wind, or hydro in the US and Europe (a couple of absolutely massive dam failures, including China's Banqiao Dam failure in 1975 killing ~175,000 taint the picture elsewhere).
Starting at p. 993: http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Annex_II.pdf
And p. 745: http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Ch10.pdf
But, and this is the big but: the most pressing concerns for nuclear power are where it goes wrong from human factors. Including mismanagement, mafia influence (as occurred at Fukushima), unforseen consequences, poor design, terrorism, war, and weapons proliferation. The worst case failure modes for nuclear power are unspeakably bad. For solar and wind, not so much. Global experience to date has been about 400 production reactors, plus construction, supply, waste reprocessing and storage (still not a politically viably solved problem), and decommissioning. Full replacement of present electrical generation only would require some 15,000 plants globally, with ~40 year lifetimes. That's one plant per day being commissioned and decommissioned. Around the world, war and peace, boom-times and recessions. Until doomsday.
And nothing will go wrong?
And the scene of the 1975 Banqiao disaster isn't some barb-wired glowing hole in the ground, but home to some 7 million plus inhabitants. Dam breaks are bad, but the consequences are fairly short-lived.
A relatively small proportion of the deaths were directly due to flooding. Most occurred from disease and starvation -- far more infrastructure and response failures than the catastrophe itself.
Even given massive flooding, access to a solidly-constructed building 2-3 stories tall would suffice to provide protection from immediate risks, as would comms, evacuation and response plans, emergency and relief supplies, etc.
China is a country which in the past century has seen tens of millions of deaths from starvation alone, most recently about 20 years before Banqiao. On the scale of Chinese tragedies, of which there've been many, this was relatively modest.
And, as noted, the region is more than fully recovered.
Contrast Chernobyl and Fukushima. 30 years after Chernobyl (the anniversary will be this April), primary containment still isn't achieved. Radiation risk was presented across an entire continen, including the 450 million inhabitants of Europe. Eating of wild foods in Germany is still restricted (particularly mushrooms and boar). Fukushima likewise still hasn't stabilised five years on, and remains uncontained.
Nuclear accidents have very long risk tails.
And all of the management, engineering, communications, and response failures of Banqiao apply equally to nuclear power.
The industry is quite fond of downplaying risks. Has done so since the first experiments. Wanting a thing doesn't make it so.
The U.N. estimates that Chernobyl caused cancer in 4,000 people. It's an estimate because it's not statistically detectable. Chernobyl was a horrible design that didn't even have a containment dome.
The level of radioactivity around Fukushima is lower than naturally-occurring radioactivity in some parts of the world. Few if any deaths are expected.
The Fukushima plant was built in the 1970's. Another plant nearby was built in the 1980's with improved safety features, and got through the same events without difficulty. Nobody advocates building more 1970's-era reactors.
To whatever extent you excuse Banqiao for its "thousand-year storm," you should also excuse Fukushima for its thousand-year tsunami: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-12740649
Meanwhile, engineers are saying a dam in Mosul, Iraq in on the verge of failing and killing at least 500,000 people by drowning, and possibly up to 1.5 million. Google "Mosul dam" for a slew of articles. Here's one: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/1-5-million-may-die-if-mos...
Our other baseload energy sources have safety issues too. The American Lung Association estimates that coal emissions kill 13,000 Americans every year.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/deaths-per-twh-for-all-ener...
Not so much nuclear.
I also agree that proliferation is an overblown concern, but the international community does have some level of discomfort with nuclear power in third-world countries. If we could provide them with, say, a Transatomic reactor that runs on very low-enriched uranium and produces very little plutonium, that would go a long way towards alleviating that concern.
Moltex looks like it might be ideal for waste burning.
Yes, go fast or go home on this. The IFR program showed that is way.
Longer answer:
Yes, there are obviously safety and proliferation concerns with nuclear power, but a lot of these are solvable problems. Many industries solve difficult/dangerous problem all the time. Unfortunately, paranoia and misleading (or simply wrong) information about radiation made a lot of people treat the very idea of nuclear power as something that is "always bad".
This, and the usual political stupidity, has kept nuclear power restricted to the same designs for decades. Imagine if the computer industry was was never able to move past the relay and vacuum tube designs made in the WW2 era; today we might have very good vacuum tubes instead of the integrated circuit. Newer reactors like the Westinghouse AP1000 are a nice improvement in safety and cost, but it's still basically the same solid uranium alloy fueled, pressurized light water reactor we've always used. Newer designs are never always considered "too risky" in either money or physics.
Also everyone blames the hippies for nuclear stagnation but nobody looks at the fossil fuel industry. The latter has far more money and political influence and is more than happy for nukes to get stuck in the 50s.
Gradual evolution of the overgrown 50s submarine reactor is the AP1000. To really make fission work and scale would require something like the liquid thorium cycle or accelerator driven reactors or pebble beds... something not an evolution of 50s tech.
Some of the options:
- 3D (heat issues, but biology got that one solved to some extent by using massive parallel low power, extremely slow and clockless architectures)
- Quantum Computing
- biological computing
- exotic semiconductors (for instance: GaAs)
- optical computing
- Totally new software architectures to take advantage of existing hardware in an un-foreseen way
- non Von-Neumann machinery (for instance, computing memory)
And a whole raft of even lesser known and researched tech. I'm really very curious what the next decade will bring.
The constraint on tech is usually more about what is economically justifiable rather than what is physically possible. It's 2016 and passenger flight is still subsonic for example.
I think the same applies to reactor building where only a few companies know how to do a particular thing (like build a reactor vessel). Cutting edge development is unavoidably going to be limited to a small group of people who have limited capacity. Merely maintaining that capacity is tricky.
The nation that should have been the primary driver of nuclear technologies (the US) saw an explosion in the cost of development. This was not seen in other countries, which is evidence that it's because of cultural/institutional problems rather than fundamental technical ones.
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11132930/nuclear-power-costs-us...
> Fusion? Was said to be ready in 20 years - 40 years ago, and today? Still 20 years to go...
This is a common misconception. In fact, the authoratative government body on energy research made it very clear 40 years ago what it would cost to develop fusion power. Fusion power never got the required funding so it never materialized -- as predicted.
So if we keep costs down like Japan did we can experience the same cost savings they did?
Where do I sign up?
The variability problem turned out to be smaller than nuclear+coal industry led us to believe and relatively easily managed with market based solutions (e.g. ramping up/down power usage by aluminum smelters and simply building in extra capacity) rather than by building massive batteries (an idiotic idea).
This [2] article covers both China's pebble bed and Thorium ambitions, as well as an evolutionary design based on a Westinghouse design that they are hoping to export.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTR-10
[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2013-02-21/china-wants-...
Some advanced reactor types, including fast reactors and molten salt reactors, produce very little transuranic waste, and can use our existing transuranic wastes as fuel, converting them to fission products. These reactors produce a much lower volume of waste, which goes back to the radioactivity of the original ore within three centuries.
Russia has two large fast reactors connected to their electric grid, one since the 1980s. The U.S. nearly completed its Integral Fast Reactor before the program was shut down by the Clinton administration. Half a dozen startups around the world are working on molten salt reactors, and China has a billion-dollar R&D program for them.
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11132930/nuclear-power-costs-us...
Well now Japan had it's own meltdown and keeping the costs stable after seeing it happen in America and, worse, Ukraine, didn't help preventing it.
And I don't know about Canada, but France has some good candidates for the next meltdown all over the place...
"Coal Kills 4,000 Times More People Per Unit of Energy than Nuclear"
http://thebreakthrough.org/archive/coal_kills_4000_times_mor...
Because losing, let's say, a major city to a nuclear disaster, that would be several orders of magnitude more expensive.
Areva[0] is in big trouble, losing a few billions (yes billions) every year. At the same time, the nuclear regulation authority have found some defects on EPR construction site and in La Hague plant.
The government is pushing EDF to take a major stake in Areva to save it. But today in the press there were multiple articles on a 100 billions "wall" that EDF will have to overcome to maintain, upgrade or decommission the current nuclear plants. And this is further complicated by the fact that the price of electricity is fixed by law, so EDF don't have many ways to increase its revenue. (This will likely have to change because it is not sustainable)
I don't know about safety, but financially this is looking bad. And with drastic cost cutting measures will likely come more incidents (or accidents..)
That's one negative point of nuclear power, we don't really know the price of decommissioning because it has never been done on large scale. So the total life cost of a nuclear plant, and thus nuclear power, can only be estimated.