We are clearly not on the same page. Because I think that 1 and 3 are rather different things, and you don't.

In particular 1 consists of exact statements about the likelihood of 7 births in a row being mmmmmmf.

By contrast 3 consists of statements about what Bill and Lorena's childbearing plans would have been if something different had happened.

Those are very different types of statement. There is no connection between statements of type 3 and statements of type 1 unless Bill and Lorena's state of mind makes a significant difference to the odds of the next child being a boy.