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Comment by fab13n | Hacker News Reader

> given its artificial constraints.

Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constraints.

Otherwise, you'll also have to call "artificial" the constraint that one can't shoot/knife/strangle people who go out of their ways to be pains in asses, however genuine and natural the urge might seem :-)

Other than that, yes, China is likely to be a very good market for Tesla, at least until local knock-off become available. I'd actually be surprised if Tesla's worldwide production matched China's demand.

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It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect.

BYD already produces electric cars that are even subsidized in many cities. However, the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them, and they wouldn't be caught dead in a Chinese-brand car (and the way the BYD electric taxis have been rumored to just explode, they think being caught dead in them is a possibility).

If Chinese demand is sufficient, I'm sure tesla would just open up a factory or two in China to supply it. They might even take on a Chinese partner in a JV given that they are so willing to share patents with competitors anyways (with the bonus that the partner would provide much of the RMB capital to startup, it's the one thing China has a lot of).

the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them

Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle.

People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits).

They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology.

> They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology.

EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do not move the needle for me relative to 'can function anywhere on the European continent without any worry whatsoever', 'fuels up in < 5 minutes to 'full charge' and another 600 km of range', 'does not require specialty knowledge or a dealership for basic maintenance'.

Oh, and if with 'faster' you are talking about acceleration then I really don't know why that would even be a factor because in normal daily driving that's the least of your problems and so on. This appears to be an argument based mostly on emotion rather than actual facts around transportation.

Taxi services, commuting, local transport are all excellent use cases for EVs. Going longer distances a hybrid is right now probably the best you can do and it will be a while before EVs will be able to compete across the board with ICE's. You'll know when we have achieved parity because gas stations will start closing, or will replace pumps with EV super charging stations en-masse.

Biggest problem for me with electric cars is the simple fact that I live in a flat - a very nice flat in a very nice European city [1]. Our car lives on the quiet street outside - so how, in the foreseeable future, would I get an electric car charged?

NB Is anyone looking into solving this particular problem - because it's one that a lot of people will face.

1 - I mention this as it is inconceivable to me that I would move simply to have a different kind of car.

In London I had a neighbor with an electric car. It was parked on the street and plugged in using a long cord to its owner's building. Seemed to work ok, though it wasn't pretty. Plenty of street crime and vandals around, somehow they didn't seem to bother.

That approach could work, but we're on the 2nd floor and with parking spaces being tight we usually don't get to park immediately outside the front door.

I'm assuming that the council will install charging stands at some point - if these had dedicated parking (and no residents parking charge!) then that would encourage people to use them.

Some properties in the street have coal holes in the road - that might an interesting place to install charging paraphernalia.

And illegal in many jurisdictions (I know with certainty that in Italy it is forbidden to put a power cord on the sidewalk without a permit from the city, and the cord must be covered by a rigid walkway)

Kerbside charging points are already becoming common in many cities, although a lot more are going to be needed. Look to cities like Oslo or Amsterdam for examples of best practice here.

Some boroughs of London are quite well covered, with charging points every 1-2 blocks or so (Westminster), where as other parts are pretty useless (Camden). Because the charge point spots are reserved for EVs only, and can only be used while charging, you can usually find an available one pretty easily.

There's talk of designing charge points that can easily be attached to existing street light poles, so in terms of infrastructure the cost to implement charging points on every street should not be unreasonable, once the demand is there.

I see Teslas and BMW i3's parked on the street near me regularly in London with no obvious access to a nearby charging point, so it's certainly possible to use an EV this way at the moment - if not entirely as convenient as having your own charge point. If you're only driving around the city then you probably don't actually need to charge all that often (maybe once a week or so), and for long-distance trips you can stop at a fast charger or supercharger.

"attached to existing street light poles"

Now that's a sensible idea.

I have seen a couple of Teslas in Edinburgh - but they look like people commuting into the city. Not seen an electric car parked anywhere that looked like the owner lived there.

Our car usage doesn't really fit with current electric cars usage - but I'd love to try if we had a suitable home and a need to commute by car (both my wife and I walk to work at the moment).

Edit: Another option would be to buy a garage - but at £60K to £80K that would rather defeat the purpose of buying an electric car to save money!

Yet again, you're parroting the "I can fill my ICE vehicle in < 5 minutes" as the only viable argument against EVs. 98% of EV commutes end at the home charging station, so this argument is getting pretty old and tired.

What was the range of the first ICE vehicle I bought on a tank of gas? 300 miles. What's the range of the Tesla model S? Also 300 miles.

For most consumers, they will actually spend less time waiting for fuel, since the Tesla charges in your garage at night while you're otherwise occupied, and an ICE vehicle requires you to wait in freezing outside temperatures while fueling it about once per week.

I was writing a much longer comment but I figured it is better to put comments that long off-site, so here you go:

http://jacquesmattheij.com/the-problem-with-evs

That gets you commuting to work and driving around your city, for which a Nissan Leaf is already perfectly adequate. It doesn't get you long-distance road trips.

Not sure if this is still planned, but at one point the intention was to have automated stations that would pull off your battery and replace it with a freshly-charged one, which should take about the same time as a gas station stop.

Let's not kid ourselves: right now people are buying Teslas for the same reason they're buying high-end Apple products.

They're well-made, sure, but they're foremost a luxury and status symbol. They're better than other status symbols because they actually have functional value that comes close to their market value, but they're still a status symbol.

However it seems that Tesla is actually trying to reduce its price point to make their products more affordable -- and that they're not as interested in treating their product as a fashion brand (yet).

>They're well-made, sure, but they're foremost a luxury and status symbol.

Not sure why this opinion is downvoted, but I agree.

The Model S is quite an engineering feat, particularly the D. But the Model 3? There are quite a few cars in that segment that have the performance and "luxury" of that car for cheaper. Being electric (and a Tesla) is the only selling point, and I don't value it that much.

I want an electric car as a commuter; something that I can go back and forth to work in every day, and charge at night. A high-torque, RWD electric car is a tough sell for the winters we get here, especially at the ~$50,000 CDN it will likely cost.

Why is high torque a problem? They have traction control, so they only apply as much torque as they can without slipping.

That doesn't apply yet in China.

I'm sure that is true in the USA and the west. In China it's not...yet. Charging is a pain when even the richest guy doesn't have a parking spot, and brand recognition of tesla in China is virtually nil, for brand conscious Chinese, they are afraid that someone will look at the tesla symbol and think "knock off Mercedes" or something. That tesla is getting market share right now is purely because of the lottery allocation.

Once they get used to it, I think Tesla will be a hit. It's just not that way yet.

easy on the koolaid there kid.

and btw, bmw already sell a EV for under 35k for over a year.

The i3 is a nice city car, but it's no Tesla competitor.

> Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should

Neither is anyone else. People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy.

>People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy.

I can't imagine you can make a valid case that there is one best car that money can buy, presumably for everyone who can afford one.

The safest vehicle (not just cars, any vehicle) ever tested by the IIHS, and the highest aggregated reviews of any car ever seem to agree with me.

1. IIHS safety tests are certainly not comprehensive, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone at the IIHS who would claim so.

2. To match your claim, it would have to have the highest reviews on every publication/outlet.

I'm simply pointing out how vast your claim is that somehow every single car buyer who can afford one would want to buy one. Think about the luxury large SUV market, or the coupe market, or the exotic coupe market, or the super-luxury sedan market, etc.

> perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines

Burning coal (especially when coupled with electric motors, which have efficiencies of 90%+) is more efficient than burning gasoline.

On the contrary, Model S hasn't been doing well in China. Luxury electric vehicles is apparently an oxymoron in China. Unlike the US, Chinese consumers have a bunch of electric mopeds and scooters.

The thought of charging your vehicle with electricity is seen as a low-class activity, for those who can't afford a "real gasoline" vehicle.

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