Who’s Right? The Debate Between Two Major Groups of AI Scientists

I think that a major issue overlooked in discussions like these is the effect of how interesting an idea is.

I could tell you that computing in 2029 is going to be more interconnected, more ubiquitous, with more surveillance and more ads -- but otherwise about the same. Or Ray Kurzweil could tell you that the future is going to be amazing!!! He is offered thousands of dollars to speak to crowds, gets book deals, etc. I am not. Because what he is saying is much more interesting than what I am saying.

But that does not mean that what he is saying is more likely to be true. What we have here is a battle of ideas where the best clickbait gets a huge advantage.

Not that this means Kurzweil is wrong, either. But it's something to keep in mind.