I'm not really a fan of such comparisons, and I don't think yours fares well, mostly because you are talking "top of the top" performance when you talk about those two. :) That's not the reality in most jobs and positions. We're certainly not talking about the Cristiano Ronaldo of software development most of the times.

As I said in other comments, I agree with the general premise of what you say. I also do, on the other hand, have some experience of the common workplace to know that sometimes, low performance is low commitment or carelessness. And both will very possibly transfer to other position. Again, previous performance is not a great indicator; I understand, however, that people might have to resort to it sometimes.