From what I'm getting, it seems the current and future generations of young people are adapting to computers, not shying away. Sure people who grew up before PCs may love this type of stuff (because it's more intuitive to them), but they'll eventually all pass away. Intuition is based on what we know and are used to, and the current generation is growing up on PCs. That's why I'm wary that dumbing down computer for "normal folks" is the future.

If the iPad replaces traditional computers, it will only be because using a touchscreen and virtual keyboard is more practical than a mouse and a physical keyboard.

Also as a tradeoff to simplifying the experience, the experience is also weakened. And as users become more savvy, they'll want to try out new stuff. These things may not be compatible with the iPad platform because of its closed nature. There are eventually going to be some scenarios where some cool new thing only works on open platforms like OS X or Windows (or linux).

Also I'd like to add that one of most popular reasons I hear from friends who don't like mac is that it dumbs down the experience. That it's for people who don't know how to use computers (like their parents). I actually had this same faulty preconceived notion until I found out programmers usually preferred os x (and switched).