The model is too simplistic. Human beings are also tribal and creatures of habit as well. We tend to vote for our party, those we've voted for in the past, and/or people who are like us.

In fact, the fact that only 11-12 states are up for grabs and the rest are solidly Democratic or Republican shows that charisma doesn't matter for most of the electoral.

It may be a weighted factor in those cross section of voters who are independents and willing to cross political lines.

Is Trump really charismatic, or is he saying things the electorate wants to hear, by promising everything under the sun, with no plan and no explanation, and blaming problems on foreigners and minorities. Xenophobia can also be a powerful factor.

IMHO, Hillary is going to beat Trump in the general election, however if there's a major terrorist attack on US soil, we could be looking at President Trump.