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Comment by zepto | Hacker News Reader

Do you know the probability that this correspondence happened by chance?

I was convinced beyond reasonable doubt, having phone records that matched rather well with testimonies. I also might have fixated on it and ignored chance, but that's why there are 12 jurors.

If someone on HN ignores the statistics, what are the chances that the other jurors paid any attention to statistics?

Reasonable doubt is not defined in terms of statistical confidence.

Maybe it should be.

Based on most of the posts here I'd say "someone on HN" is just as likely - if not more, due to misplaced confidence - to ignore statistics.

Or all humans fall victim to largely the same kinds of fallacies. That's why there is no jury in all countries that I know of except America.

I'm not sure if a jury is a bad idea, when I first learned of it, I kinda liked the idea, but I'm worried about this kind of reasoning...

What do other countries do?

Is the decision made by one person that has these same fallacies? At least the risk is spread out some in the jury situation.

Other countries definitely use juries, just not as universally as the US. They more often just have a judge or a panel of judges, or sometimes a sort of jury that includes judges.

Proper training alleviates these fallacies. I trust a judge much better than a jury of random people.

On the other hand, the random jury doesn't have the same perverse incentives and web of relationships that support conviction.

Would you still trust that judge that was elected to office with lobbyist money?

I think electing judges might also be a uniquely American thing, and less than half the country does it. It's a much weirder practice than using juries. Obviously you can still say a judge was appointed by people elected with lobbyist money, but it's not that direct.

Might be my lack of knowledge in the subject, but I've never heard of electing judges. Isn't it just a study and a background check or so, at least in western Europe?

Not only do some states have elections, but they have partisan elections, which is just obviously a dumb idea. I have no idea how it works in other countries, but in most US states judges are either elected by the legislature or appointed by the governor.

Judges are not elected in my country, so can't comment on that.

This page contains a list of countries using Jury in various way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury

> That's why there is no jury in all countries that I know of except America.

The UK uses juries in much the same way as the US does, as do many other countries whose legal systems derives from that of the UK (which are a fair number, because colonialism.)

Did any of the other jurors calculate the probability of the result being by chance?

I wonder if the defense attorney brought in a statician to argue that?

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