But bundling will still probably be faster and will probably continue to be a mainstay of production web apps, just like minification already is.
I think you meant executing the actual JS. Finding the imports requires parsing the file, and imports can be anywhere in the file as long as they're at the top level.
If someone then misuses document.write the token stream has to be thrown out and things have to be retokenized, but that's rare in practice. The tradeoff is better accuracy of the preloader and not having to go through the text twice unless someone is misusing document.write.
From a developer perspective, producing the only the dependency graph is still going to be faster and need less overall IO than building a bundle. You can get a sense of it today with jspm dep-cache versus jspm bundle times.
In one project I worked on, we had 3 bundles: - early load (inside the head tag) - deferred load secondary (after body tag, for the other site pages) - deferred load primary (after the body tag, for the 'hot' pages of the site) With a optimal http/2.0 setup, we wouldn't need to make these never fully optimal bundles.
Modules give you a certain degree of namespacing, which is nice. Compiling down to a tar to be served to a Service Worker is undoubtedly easier than the mangling needed to remove the modules.