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Comment by robertelder | Hacker News Reader

I think by definition, you can't 'brace' for 'a bubble'. That's the central part of the metaphor that the bubble 'bursts' as a sudden event at a time you can't prepare for. The act of anticipating for a 'bubble' and preparing for it is the exact kind of behaviour that prevents it from happening.

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You can't predict when the bubble will occur, but you can certainly brace for it. Hiring contingent workforces that can be immediately let go if tax receipts fall, not entering into any long term contracts with large penalties, based on the belief you will always have a large population, and, most, most importantly, don't enter into long term unfunded liabilities with the hope/prayer/belief that times will always be good, and that the future will be able to pay for the present. Unfunded Pension Liabilities (among many other things) crippled Detroit, Puerto Rico, and, very soon, Chicago.

Also - for large infrastructure investments, certainly issue bonds for things like water, sewer, hospital, basic infrastructure - but don't get too crazy/extravagant with Sport Stadiums, or overly complex derivative hedges that blow up if the economy tanks.

If you really want such nice toys for your city, consider saving for them rather than going into debt.

Municipal finances are not like Federal (or heck, even state) finances - you really do have to balance your books.

Just because you can't predict the exact moment of recession doesn't mean you can't prepare for it. Plenty of events in life are inevitable but lacking a calendar invite.

Bracing for a bubble is just being wise with money. You know roughly what the lows look like, you know what the highs look like, so you pick somewhere in the middle to sustain your life (city) and save the surplus for the lows.

To an extent you can't totally prepare for a massive event (everyone leaves SF; all jobs disappear overnight, now what?).

That merely shows the problem with calling every tech boom a "bubble". Technology has been boom-and-bust in the Bay Area for decades, but there was only one bubble: 1996-2000. There have been technology booms since, but there have been no "bubbles" in the Bay Area tech economy since March, 2000.

Recessions, while painful, are much less extreme than bubble-bursts, and can (and should) be planned for.

To echo the other posters, the entire insurance industry is predicated on the concept that you can plan for something bad happening, even if you don't know the date.

You can invest in infrastructure.

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