What are the odds we are living in a computer simulation?

What would this simulation run on? At some point, there has to be something that exists.

The problem I have with simulation theory is why would the creators of the simulation be so cruel as to give the us (the sims) self realization.

I can see creating a world of sims, running on autopilot, even with variable personalities, talents, and beliefs. But why would you let each sim be conscious of their surroundings?

It's infinitely cruel to arbitrarily create and destroy sentient beings.

I personally think the logical fallacy is where the leap happens at the point of since future beings exist, and future computers would be thousands of orders of magnitude more powerful, thus it is highly likely we're a simulation. I remember listening to Elon make this argument, and to me he makes a leap that is illogical.

A relevant short story is I don't know, Timmy, being God is a big responsibility.

https://qntm.org/responsibility