Nate Silver's 2016 Election Forecast Microsite

I think the change that Trump is not going to be GOP candidate his higher than him winning the election (19%)

His campaign has no money, he don't have organization in place to run a campaign, his campaign spends money to buy stuff from Trump companies, party insiders are worried.

If Trump fails to get his ducks in the row before the GOP convention starts, it's possible that delegates choose someone else who was not even in the race (Ryan, Romney). Convention has the ability to change rules on the spot and many Trump delegates are not really his supporters.

I like this a lot.

I thought that in the primaries their models and forecasts left a little bit to be desired (in comparison to other news sites), and this more than makes up for it.