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Comment by rgbrenner | Hacker News Reader

This is not a setback for automatic driving. This is just a Tesla problem.

Let's all hope that's how this is remembered 10 years from now (or whenever) when automatic driving is actually ready.

It's not a given that people will remember this as a Tesla-only problem. Instead it might be remembered as that time when autopilot got people killed.

And when it's actually ready... what Tesla is doing today, might delay or slow the adoption of real autopilot. And that would be a real setback for the real thing.

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In ten years, when there is much more reliable autonomous driving, I think this will simply be remembered as a failed and misguided earlier attempt just like people trying to fly by strapping wings to their backs and flapping.

there will be deaths and accidents from the computer controlled cars. that is pretty much inevitable. the question is where on the x of y miles driven per accident/fatality does it make sense to accept that computers and algorithms are fallible just like humans but in aggregate the system works better than just humans doing all the manual control inputs. it's the first of its kind and we only have one datapoint w.r.t. the deadliness of autopilot used without oversight but it seems to indicate that the autopilot is safer overall in aggregate.

No, it's not clear at all that autopilot is safer. Tesla has stated that it's safer by comparing the miles autopilot has driven vs the overall average for a human.

But that's an unfair comparison.. because humans drive in all conditions, while autopilot is more likely to be used on highways (and in good weather). Even human drivers are 3x safer on highways. So until Tesla is willing to compare like with like, we do not know how it compares.

It's also too early to waive off the damage that Tesla may cause. It's been 6 months since they rolled this thing out.

Over the next few years, they're going to give 300,000 cars to consumers with this enabled.

The few incidents that have been reported may just be the tip of the iceberg. We'll see how bad it gets when you have a few hundred thousand people driving around with what they think is autonomous driving.

I think a more apt comparison is miles driven while distracted. the guy was watching a movie and completely not paying attention. How many accidents were and are caused by people texting and driving per x number of miles? There were apparently enough that they passed laws against distracted driving in many states in america.

This is a beta product that explicitly says not to use it without paying attention. there are alarms that are supposed to go off and the vehicle is supposed to slow down to a halt if you do not have your hands on the steering wheel.

I see it like the beginning of the airline industry. At first they weren't as comfortable and safe as they are now. any time they have an airline disaster they do a thorough investigation and if it is warranted they will issue new mandates that airlines need to follow. over time, every accident makes air travel safer from those mistakes/edge cases/etc.

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