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> I've been reading books recently that emphasise the importance of being the first to market with something innovative

That worked well for the Newton, the Lisa, the Nomad, Amiga Inc, didn't it?

Contrast with Palm, Mac & Windows, iPods, and so on and so forth.

Perhaps the difference is being a first mover while the market is establishing itself, before it then gives way to another innovation cycle.

I suppose in that case, the key is innovation. So Google would be wise to innovate over the competition... but they might stand a chance due to their deep pockets. It hasn't worked out well for their attempts to get into several markets though.

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