Revisit your assumptions and use clarity.
Also take your own advice and research memory compression and probability densities.
It is very possible to write a VM that exposes 20 Gb of "memory" to an application in a host machine with only 10 Gb of physical memory by using cache which would introduce latency to the simulation.
Here is an implementation for you to study: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zswap
You can, and it will work as long as the memory of the virtual machine can be compressed to less than 10 GB.
Programs compiled to run on current amd64 CPUs have access to 2^48 bits of virtual memory, yet they run on real machines with much much less real memory.
Hey, look, most of the space out there is a vacuum! Gravity may be the hashing/pre-compressor function the simulation we are living in. ;)
If you read e.g. the Bostrom 2003 paper, you will see that this is more or less what they claim: If your simulation technique is good enough, you can just fake most of the universe and only actually perform fine-grained simulations where it matters. This would e.g. assume that you have special simulation rules for brains, large scale chemical reactions etc., which allows you to just skip most of the details and make them up once you need them. You could even automatically detect whether your simulation is fine grained enough by running the same simulation at two different granularities at the same time, readjusting whenever the outcome between the two differs too much.
I think the argument in its original form does not make too much sense (future humans simulating todays humans for research and fun). What you would probably simulate much more, are human-like entities in a much simpler universe (e.g. no weird quantum-mechanics that are really hard to simulate).
So in my opinion, you could take away from the simulation argument that there is a non-zero chance that we are living in a simulation. But the computer that performs the simulation most probably lives in a universe that does not follow the same rules our universe does. It might be a universe with two or more time-like dimensions. It might be one where quantum mechanics are just super-easy to simulate for some reason (maybe in the same way it would be really easy to e.g. build Conways game of life in transistor hardware for us).
Suppose you have a real machine with 10 GB. You simulate a world of 1 GB. Inside the world, the universe is contained in 1 GB (say, a smaller version of the universe, simplified physics, etc). Inside the virtual machine, in the simulation world, the perceived universe is 1 GB. They simulation agents don't perceive a short-coming because they have never been exposed to the out-the-simulation experiences.
> They simulation agents don't perceive a short-coming because they have never been exposed to the out-the-simulation experiences.
I agree, and this was the only part I found lacking in the article. For example, where it says:
> The argument is quite simple: we already make simulations, and with better technology it should be possible to create the ultimate one, with conscious agents that experience it as totally lifelike.
This is implying that the world we experience is somehow the "ultimate" one, and it would require super-intelligence to bring a mere simulation up to this pinnacle of existence. In fact, that's also an implicit assumption being made by those searching for 'errors' (not to dismiss such efforts; chasing empirical evidence is the best contribution to make in such arguments).
Yet if our universe is a simulation, there's nothing to say it's not actually a crappy, low-res, toy-physics sandbox; the simulators may consider it to be as "ultimate" and "lifelike" as we find 80s home computer games.
That's like saying "I only own a computer with 10Gb of memory, so certainly a program using 20Gb is impossible!"