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Well, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is a top 10 (arguably top 5) ranked CS department, and Michigan is no slouch, either.

I agree with the gist of your point, though. The school you attend is considerably more important for grad school.

Well, I'm not fully agree on the examples with Sergey and Max. Sergey's father is a very qualified ex-soviet mathematician, he gave very good basics to Sergey. Max moved to US when he was 16. He's got grounds from the soviet education system, which was very different comparing to US. So, their college choice (theoretically) could not change their fate. ;)

But in overall you're right. Don't treat college as your pass to success, however it could be your backup, just in case if you're not that smart as you think. ;)

my thoughts exactly.