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Comment by falsestprophet | Hacker News Reader

Probably most of the world would prefer Hong Kong to have self determination. But do you think it is inevitable that it will not?

The People's Liberation Army has 2.3 million personnel and Hong Kong has a population of approximately 7 million.

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I think you're manufacturing the kind of PLA in your mind that you would like to believe exists, to see what kind of response you get back, out of curiosity. The PLA in your mind is a super well-functioning, well-oiled, "modern army," which obeys commands perfectly, has no competing business interests paying for different activities and agendas, and is a top-down command and control type of Army with a heroic Dwight Eisenhower type of guy, marching precisely 2.8 million men down into Hong Kong in these neat little columns until they occupy all of the streets, and start raising up Chinese flags or something. That's just not at all reflective of what we know. It's a lot more opaque and there are so many unknowns. We do know China is rife with corruption and there are tons of competing interests, and the military is in no way exempt from that. One can become a multi-multi millionaire if not billionaire working in the military in China, if that gives any inkling of how a better representation of what the Chinese military being used in such an operation may look like.

Many other governments have bigger armies than the entire population of Hong Kong too, does that mean we must shut up and never speak ill of anyone?

I think in this case it's more that there's a ticking clock for Hong Kong. The international community pressured the return of control from Britain to China, so by 2047, if nothing _massive_ has changed, the international community will likely back any and all claims by China, including removing it's SAR status. Army size has basically nothing to do with it, I don't think.

Hong Kong is an amazing place that the world shouldn't lose. But I get the impression that, as China develops, it's using HK as a template for how to make cities great. Maybe it won't be a cultural genocide, so much as China catching up? Hong Kong's always been a mixture of cultures, that's part of what made it so special to begin with, so I think integrating with a more successful China could be good?

Nah man, it will be cultural genocide. It's already happened significantly...I don't know else how to explain it without being obtuse. Go to Hong Kong, talk to some people there, ask them how things used to be. Go to Shenzhen, look at how things are there, talk to some people about what they think about Hong Kong. Compare the robustness and informativeness of the type of response you get from the citizens from each side of the border. It's a sad state of affairs. That being said, I also love Shenzhen, for different reasons.

Shenzhen is very different from the surrounding areas (Guangzhou, Hong Kong) though, as it's a very young planned city built after the Cultural Revolution, and most people there are from the rest of China.

Actually, China's army is the biggest in the world by active headcount and only the US, India, and North Korea have over a million. Given the time it takes to train and equip a soldier, that number can't grow very fast except in times of total war.

Yup and those people of hong kong are for more economic productive than the 2.3 million of the PLA.

It's economics thats more powerful than a bullet these days. It's a sort of suicide destroying HK.

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