The US producers have promised they would turn fracking back on if oil crossed above the mid-40s. Canada will also be back online as the wildfires have burned out.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/29/us-shales-message-for-opec-ab...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/29/us-shales-message-for-opec-ab...
"Tight oil companies outspend cash flow by an average of 120%: spend $2.20 for every dollar earned from operating activities." "Tight oil company debt-to-cash from operating activities ratio averages 3.3: would take more than 3 years to pay down debt if all cash flow was used."
Please see: http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/The-Shale-Revolu...
Meanwhile: http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/oil-zombies-debt/
One thing to consider ( although it's pretty different ) - the 1980s oil crash was in around 1983; the S&L bailout (FIRREA) was in 1989. Six years' latency.