Quite a lot more than a few trillion.
tl;dr if all the matter in the whole universe was a computer, it'd still be unlikely.
Moore's Law doesn't really factor into it.
I'm a bit surprised the quantum algorithm only gives a polynomial speedup.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe#Matter_con...
2^256 = (2^10)^25.6 = 1024^25.6
These number seem very close.