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So MS will turn into an application hosting company!

The next Microsoft will probably be one. So the question is whether the next Microsoft is Microsoft or someone else.

I would say its Google - its very similar to what happened to ISVs in the 90s - if they were too close to the horizontal stuff MS did, they were steamrolled. today, its similar with startups and google - if what you do is too close - you will either be steamrolled or acquired (if you are lucky).

In the very limited field of dinky web calendars and todo lists, maybe, but not in the startup world in general.

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