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> but you'd think that this would be an obvious one for them to break since it is ostensibly their specialty.

Silver's already touched on this poll and its unusual methodology:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-th...

He didn't get scooped; explaining the technical details isn't his ostensible specialty, adjusting for them is.

Good point. Although I think Cohn's speciality is more valuable to me here. I came away from the Silver piece when I first read it with the problem merely being a fixed population of voters; the Cohn piece was much more illuminating since it showed the specifics of how that pre-condition has been affecting all kinds of aggregation methods. So Silver was the early warning, but Cohn had the nitty-gritty.

I'm just used to Silver providing that--they seem spread pretty thin. As you point out, you have to specialize in something, though...

And so what if he were to be scooped? No ones all knowing.

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