> it's probably already done, and you should just apt-get it or whatever.
This leads to the next quagmire:
How do you reliably estimate how long it takes to find the already written software that does X?
This leads to the next quagmire:
How do you reliably estimate how long it takes to find the already written software that does X?
That said, for some classes of software, Drupal plugins and Minecraft mods come to mind, are all varying degrees of abysmal. Those take a lot longer to sort through.
Things like "evidence based scheduling" and your permutations around "velocity" and burndown charts seem to help, particularly over time, but I've found no magic bullet.