Comment by lightcatcher | Hacker News Reader

Comment by lightcatcher | Hacker News Reader

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> If that happens, gasoline cars will stop being produced overnight.

Some people will still pay for range or range at speed or less charging time.

http://jalopnik.com/they-drove-a-tesla-from-la-to-new-york-i... is a decent look at the state of technology. Driving across the US takes at least 12.5 hours of charging time, and averaged 65.4mph while ICE record averaged 98mph.

Even when "electric cars are cheaper on a capital basis", the technology will still be well behind ICE in some ways (and well ahead in others).

Deal is when an electric car with 150-200 miles of range is cheaper than a gasoline powered car, then for the vast majority of people the next car purchase will be electric or a plug in hybrid (twice the mileage of conventional). Assume 12,000 miles a year for a mix of cars

    %   Type             mpg  gal/yr       ext
    50% Electric         --   0            0
    25% Plug in Hybrid   80   150 X 0.25 = 37.5
    25% Non-Hybrid       30   400 X 0.25 = 100
    -----------------------------------------
    Total                                  137.5

    100% Non-Hybrid      30   400 X 1.00 = 400
    ------------------------------------------
    100%                                   400

So the mix of electric, plug in hybrid and gasoline results in a 2/3 reduction in gasoline consumption.

And that's in the US. In countries without domestic oil production the choice will be made for you.

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