Also, the article doesn't consider the extremely unlikely long-tail results. I.e the Facebooks and Googles it is trying to explain. In addition to the 1% 20 times return, there is the opportunity for a .1% 100 or greater fold return. If the initial 500k investment in Google Peter Thiel made diluted to even .01% of current Google stock that would be worth about $170million in current market cap. A return of 340 times initial investment in around 10 years. Obviously these exits are extremely rare, but the long tail possibilities of a distribution can be very important in calculating expected value(like when they predict colossal mortgage failures).