Hacker News Reader

That's a super conservative prediction which has zero growth from current sales numbers in it. Tesla grows has historically grown at about 50% per year.

View on HN

Not talking about the number of cars sold, talking about that translating into self-driving capabilities. And in that sense, it is a very aggressive prediction, given that Google has had fully-autonomous, no-backup-driver, public-road-testing for over a year.

So you can say that Tesla is at least 1-years behind. More like 4-5.

Tesla is definitely behind Google now, but I'm saying their trajectory is orders of magnitude better, because they are collecting real world training data much faster. Humans show the minimal set of sensors needed for driving, and Tesla have a superset of that being delivered to customers today, which is being used to train their model. They get a lifetime of real world driving experience on those sensors every day.

Your prediction is only good as your assumptions: that Tesla can achieve human-like levels of intelligence in under 10 years.

That is extremely aggressive. Getting data is the easy part of self-driving.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com