If you're the average SV guy who 'daily drives' his Tesla 20 miles from Oakland to his lofted startup where there's 220 to full-charge before you go home, you'll get 2%. Johnny in Kentucky working the coal miles doesn't have that luxury and will certainly enter into 'deep charge' consumption. (600 cycles -> ~75%, with 2nd deriv of batt life w/r/t cycle being negative, i.e., progressively decreasing losses).
Again, not in the field professionally, but these opinions are consistent with my friends who are working at the forefront (albeit, a statistically small sample space, I openly concede !)
My numbers line up with what most Tesla owner experiences. If your friends are at the forefront of the profession then I'd be a bit worried about whoever they're working for.
Your pack longevity math is grossly inaccurate.