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Comment by pfarnsworth | Hacker News Reader

This really just puts more strength in the idea that success is largely luck-based.

No one can accurately predict success. Not specialized forums, not specialized workers in the field, and not even VCs whose sole incentive is to make money by investing in great ideas.

Even YC says as much that they have no clear idea as to what will be a success, and their strongest signal is the strength of the founders, and that there should be co-founders. I'm not sure how their experiment went with inducting people into YC just based solely on who they were, without an idea, but that's just further evidence that even people obsessed with finding success basically have no clear idea or signal as to what makes a success.

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I agree with some of the sentiment but I feel like saying "largely luck-based" frames it as being mostly out of our control.

Yes, there are absolutely economic/industry issues that are completely out of our control and hard to predict but I believe a major part is the strength of the team to focus, execute, get along and continue when sh*t happens, and adjust as their Vision hits reality.

I'm not sure what the division is between luck/timing vs team/product vs all the other things but it's hard to accept that it's "largely" out of my hands. Maybe you're right but I hope not.

Assuming that the minimum threshold for any successful company are things like "strength of the team to focus, execute, get along and continue when sh*t happens, and adjust as their Vision hits reality", then I do believe that everything else is out of your control.

If it weren't out of your control, then wouldn't someone have already come up with a more surefire way of creating a successful company than what we currently have? The smartest people are here in Silicon Valley, all trying to become billionaires and yet only a very small percentage actually succeed, and there's no way to accurately and consistently predict before it happens.

  >> not sure how their experiment went with inducting people into YC just based solely on who they were, without an idea,

It was not a success, and was not tried again.

Luck vs. skill is a false dichotomy. When people (or products, startups, organizations, governments, etc.) are successful, it's usually because they had developed very good skills at a.) putting themselves in situations where good luck is going to happen to them, b.) being able to continue doing so until good luck does occur, and c.) positioning themselves to take advantage of that luck when it happens.

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