A large slab of ice is breaking off an Antarctic glacier
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I'm one of the scientists on Project MIDAS (the team that made the announcement). Happy to answer questions about this. I've also been keeping a spreadsheet of things roughly the size of the iceberg, for journalistic comparisons: https://twitter.com/mewo2/status/818826891545210881
A more probable (but still fairly unlikely) scenario is that this could destabilise the ice shelf over a longer timescale (maybe decades). Removing ice from the front would let the ice behind accelerate, stretch and thin, which makes it more vulnerable to calving again, and so forth.
The most likely outcome though is that there's no significant change to the ice shelf, except maybe the flow of the ice speeds up a bit, which is interesting glaciologically, but probably not something the rest of the world will get excited about.
Obviously, any and all of this could change as the climate continues to warm. If we start to see significant levels of surface melt ponding across the shelf, then we can worry.
* How long will it take for "Deleware" to melt?
* Is ocean ice this large called an iceberg?
* Does is get an official name, like IIS Wilmington (international ice station, capital of Deleware)?
* Have large ice sheets in the past forced/caused changes in human behavior, such as altering shipping lanes, in the same way planes fly around a storm?
Potentially a very long time, although it will likely break into smaller pieces first. A lot of icebergs get caught in the Antarctic Coastal Current, and just drift around the edge of Antarctica, not melting very much at all. Over time, most of them break free and drift north into warmer waters and melt, but others stick around. Iceberg B-9, which calved in 1987, still has a few chunks sitting around.
> * Is ocean ice this large called an iceberg?
Yes. You'll sometimes see the bigger bergs described as "ice islands", but that's just a subcategory of iceberg.
> * Does is get an official name, like IIS Wilmington (international ice station, capital of Deleware)?
It'll get a numeric designation, A-nn, where A indicates which quadrant of Antarctica it originated from (in this case 0-90W) and nn is a sequential number, probably in the high sixties depending on whether any other large bergs calve first. Then, as it breaks up, the resulting bergs will get letters added to the name, A-nnA, A-nnB, etc.
> * Have large ice sheets in the past forced/caused changes in human behavior, such as altering shipping lanes, in the same way planes fly around a storm?
In 2005, B-15A blocked the entrance to McMurdo Sound, where the main US and New Zealand Antarctic bases are located, and they were unable to get cargo ships in for a few weeks. And of course, ships are redirected around icebergs in the open ocean all the time.
That bit about McMurdo is interesting. I doesn't surprise me, but I didn't know, that they send and receive thinhs via ships. I always hear about McMurdo as being inaccessible by plane during some chunk of time during the cold season, usually tied to some real world emergency or movie plotline with a sense of urgency.
Thanks for posting, and curious about this. When icebergs subdivide, how is tracking accomplished?
I assume late 80s was recent enough for decent resolution space imagery?
Landsat (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program) was likely the best available imagery back then. In the 80's it looks like they had 60m resolution - I assume that would be big enough to see an iceberg?
Potentially a very long time, ...
Am I the only one who is concerned that a scientist wouldn't immediately comment that this is irrelevant with respect to effect on sea level? Once any body of ice is free-floating, its effect on sea level is immediate and doesn't get worse as it melts.(pedantic Blue Hen here.)
Regarding spelling, I plead not guilty by reason of autocorrect+gorilla-fingers-on-little-screen.
Not human in this example, but they can be devastating to penguin populations:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/13/150000-penguin...
What is your theory ? What should society as a whole do now in order to stop these processes ?
If you mean more broadly how can we help prevent the loss of ice from Antarctica, then I'm not a climate policy expert, but https://350.org/ is a good place to start.
Antarctic sea ice extent has been increasing, largely because of a change in wind patterns. Winds blow ice away from the coast, leading to more open water, which leads to more sea ice formation. Even though Antarctica is getting warmer, it's still much too cold to melt sea ice in most places, so climate warming isn't having a huge direct effect on sea ice.
However, the land ice in the Antarctic is almost certainly decreasing (exact measurements are quite hard), and the trend is definitely towards more ice loss. Ice shelves, although floating, are the outer extremes of this land ice.
This is a good review paper on the subject of the mass balance of land ice: http://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/248038.pdf
If the entire Antarctic ice shelf melted, global sea levels would rise about 60 meters (200 feet).
http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophys...
Though it would take a huge temperature rise for that to happen -- enough that the other climatic effects would probably be as bad or worse than the sea level rise.
Greenland is not nearly so cold, so it's more likely that its ice shelf would melt, which would add about 7 meters (20 feet) to sea level.
Reference: http://www.livescience.com/40125-climate-change-affecting-ar...
Of course, that shelf is also having some crack problems: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/07/british-antarc...
This is all much further south than cruise ships normally go though.
Also are there implications for the glacier(s) that feed this ice shelf after this part of the shelf breaks off?
Also, remember, you're only seeing the top 10% or so of the berg. There can be interesting shapes below the waterline, caused by preferential melting.
As for the glaciers feeding the shelf, that's an interesting question. Floating ice on its own provides very little resistance to their flow, but the mouth of the ice shelf is narrower than the back, so the converging flow has a resistive effect, like squeezing toothpaste out of a tube. If a gap is made in the ice blocking the mouth, then there should be some speedup of the glaciers. It all depends on exactly where the rift goes next, and on the exact balance of stresses in the shelf, which there's some uncertainty about.
I'm not an ecologist though, so I'm hazy on the details.
Just guessing:
There might be tardigrades. They can withstand extremes of hot and cold. First saw them mentioned here on HN some time ago. Amazing creatures. From the Wikipedia article:
Tardigrades are notable for being the most resilient animal: they can survive extreme conditions that would be rapidly fatal to nearly all other known life forms. They can withstand temperature ranges from 1 K (−458 °F; −272 °C) (close to absolute zero) to about 420 K (300 °F; 150 °C),[8] pressures about six times greater than those found in the deepest ocean trenches, ionizing radiation at doses hundreds of times higher than the lethal dose for a human, and the vacuum of outer space.[9] They can go without food or water for more than 30 years, drying out to the point where they are 3% or less water, only to rehydrate, forage, and reproduce.[3][10][11][12]
I was going to add a few ideas on how to glue it back, but then I deleted them as it would sound more stupid than it already does.
Then, once you had it back into position, you'd need to apply your "glue" to the whole crack surface, which is around 40 square kilometers, a little smaller than Manhattan Island. Also, the majority of that crack surface is hundreds of meters deep in sub-zero waters in one of the most inaccessible places on the planet.
Then, once you've done that, the same forces which caused this bit to calve off would cause a new bit to calve a year or two later.
Also, surface melt is only half the story. The base of the ice is in contact with the ocean, which is also warming. Water in contact with ice is (more or less by definition) at the freezing/melting point - if it warms, the ice melts a bit, if it cools, the water freezes. So a change in ocean temperatures can have a big effect on melt rates.
Finally, it's not enough that the shelf be in equilibrium, melt-wise. The ice is constantly thinning, as it stretches and flows under its own weight. There needs to be enough extra mass added (mostly as snow) to compensate for that, if the shelf is to remain a constant thickness.
They're mostly old volcanoes some are still active but so pointy there wouldn't be much for a berg to catch on until it was right on top of them.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8e/British_...
largest glacier calving ever filmed:
Truly remarkable, thanks for sharing.
Sea ice doesn't contribute to sea level rise when it rises; continental ice sheets and grounded ice shelves do. There are three great ice sheets: West Antarctica (~2.2 million km³), Greenland (~2.8 million km³) and East Antarctica (~20 million km³). By contrast, the largest ice shelf, Ross Ice Shelf, is only ~0.1-0.2 million km³. I don't know how much of that is grounded and thus capable of inducing sea level rise on loss. By comparison, the piece that's breaking off is only 1700 km³ or so.
Our knowledge of the exact state of these ice sheets and shelves has a lot of holes in them, but it's clear that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is gaining in mass, West Antarctic Ice Sheet about stable to slightly negative, and Greenland is shedding at a fast clip of a few hundred km³/year. The ice shelves, particularly in West Antarctica, do seem to generally be in retreat.
At current rates of loss, the melting of the ice sheets provide only a very modest rate of sea level rise--maybe 0.5mm/yr. By comparison, in, say, Norfolk, the isostatic rebound from the loss of the Laurentide Ice Sheet contributes about 1.5mm/yr in sea level rise. The fear is that there could be some kind of tipping point that causes the ice sheets to very suddenly and dramatically collapse (à la Larsen B), but we don't have much evidence to suggest that this is likely to happen.
To boil it down to one key point, west antarctica has grounding lines which slope inward, such that the ice melting is already causing a positive feedback loop as melt accelerates the process of warm water working its way under the ice sheet.
So while no one is predicting an immediate collapse, there absolutely is reason to think we will and already have been crossing tipping points which will cause irreversible, continuing acceleration in melt.
[1] http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160412-ice-sheet-...
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQMtb1Pd07E
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:West_Antarctic_Collapse.o...
Isn't there a small but not insignificant sea level rise due to warming of the water due to less sea ice (less light reflected, greater warming of the sea than with an ice layer)?
1) At the moment when the sea ice breaks off there is no rising in overall level due to fact that the ice displaces the same volume of water as is in it.
2) during the melting phase if the sea water around the ice is greater than 4 degrees, the melting will cause a temporary drop in the local temperature of water causing the water level to in fact drop slightly.
3) in the LONG term, the additional volume of liquid water added by the ice will be warmed and expand causing a slight increase in water level due to thermal expansion (assisted by the change in albedo of the whole system as you mentioned)
"The consensus picture emerging: whereas Antarctica as a whole is losing mass slowly (assessed to be contributing 0.2 mm/yr sea-level equivalent by IMBIE2), Greenland, the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica are together losing mass at a moderate (~1 mm/yr sea-level equivalent) rate today (~70% of this mass loss is from Greenland) and rates for each are becoming increasingly negative."
*
That summary is not willing to commit to a + or - sign for mass change in East Antarctica specifically, although some individual studies have shown mass growth there.
Source: Put some ice cubes in water. Observe that they float.
A break-up this huge may not directly alter sea-levels but it's certainly symptomatic of a larger disruption that's playing out on a massive scale.
Most of the sea level rise comes from melting land ice.
"After breaking away from Antarctica, it will leave the remainder of the shelf vulnerable to future collapse. If all the ice that the Larsen C shelf currently holds back were to enter the sea, it is estimated that global waters would rise by 10 cm (3.9 in)."
Also, melting sea ice itself increases absorption of solar energy and accelerates global warming slightly. Its not a huge factor, IIRC, but you never want a positive feedback loop that reinforces and undesirable trend.
They have their own brief blog post at: http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/larsen-c-ice-shelf-poised-t...
≈ (0.2 to 0.3) × mass of a Handy size cargo ship ( 28000 to 40000 lg tn )
≈ (0.3 to 0.5) × mass of a Small Handy size cargo ship ( 20000 to 28000 lg tn )
≈ 0.83 × daily mass of trash produced in New York City (≈ 1.2×10^7 kg )
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+kilotonEDIT:
For the ice slab in question, W|A gives following comparisons:
≈ ( 0.25 ≈ 1/4 ) × total area of Wales (≈ 8023 mi^2 )
≈ 1.7 × total area of Rhode Island ( 1212 mi^2 )
≈ 3 × area of forest flattened by the asteroid explosion over Tunguska in 1908 (≈ 2000 km^2 )Maybe make it a greasemonkey script - then hook into Wolfram Alpha and display from that. GeoIP might not be too big on an issue, either...
Ultimately, it's not about whether the idea is original, but how the idea is executed. Think about it - how many social networks were there before Facebook? It isn't like Facebook is original, or the first, or even the last! Similar with Google (do you really think there won't be something that takes over Google's position with search, or does it better, or different?).
Don't worry about originality! Just take your idea(s) - and try to execute them - worry about what you can control, instead of what others control.
I will say that I'm live in the US and don't have any real sense of the size of Rhode Island, or Palestine for that matter.
Palestine in particular is a country that is very difficult to judge the size of, for very political reasons. It's actually far easier for someone to look at a map of Delaware and judge its size than to look at a map of Palestine and judge its size.
In this case, it tells us this shelf is slightly taller than the Eiffel Tower [0] with an area a bit smaller than Bali. [1]
0: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(length)
1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(area)
Not that most people on Hacker News would agree, but I encourage people to do more research on the topic. MIDAS is funded by NERC, so they obviously aren't going to share this view.
I tend to think it is a deep-seated personality flaw that a lot of people have but don't realize they have. They think they are more open-minded that they actually are.
I'm heartened knowing that not long ago, the majority of people believed the sun revolved around the earth and anyone who dared to speak against that "settled science" was excommunicated by the Catholic Church.
I don't deny that many progressives are less open minded than they think. But better challenge them things like anti-GMO / pro-organics ideas that don't really have much base in real science.
Unlike in the climate field, you'll find that actually lots of people who research GM / food safety will not agree with the alarmist headlines of GMO or "processed foods".
The climate deniers are the ones like the Catholic Church
The ones that doesn't have any evidence and deny all the experimental facts are the deniers.
The same with evolution/creationism
Ask yourself: Why are there no conservative voices in the climate science field? Why is only one certain type of political class so obsessed with it?
Where are the skeptical scientists of any political stripe hiding out? If these people are all in 100% agreement on this matter it tells me that much more is going on than just science because not even in math and physics do we see that level of agreement going on! It's only in this one area where there is no room to speak one's mind.
The "evidence" you speak of is all based on models. I have seen some of these, been in presentations where they were discussed, and have shaken my head in wonderment that these models are taken so seriously.
Climate science is a religion, there's no mistaking the behaviors of the people involved in it. They even want to pass laws now to limit anyone asking questions!
The only religion is your view.
You're wrong in the claim that there are no conservative voices, you are wrong in your claim that consensus only exists in climate science, you are wrong in your claim about models .
> They even want to pass laws now to limit anyone asking questions!
And now you're just plainly lying.
Ps, a secret, there is a world outside of USA.
As I understand the origin of this phenomenon is understood to have to do with the axial rotation of the earth, and mostly had effects on the nothern hemisphere.
The reasons and effect of the warming we experience now are harldy comparable.