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Comment by vannevar | Hacker News Reader

The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence.

That is clearly not true. See, for example: http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2016-12-08-01.aspx

If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs).

It's true that many people bargain hunt, but the people that don't (primarily business people who need to fly on short notice and on fixed schedules) subsidize lower fares for those who do.

At the moment, it is the investors who are subsidizing lower fares at Uber and Lyft, to the tune of billions of dollars per year. You're right about the autonomous cars. At this rate, Uber will run out of money before autonomous cars can save it. And even if they do, Uber will be a low margin business.

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    That is clearly not true. See, for example: [Industry publication]

A clarification: I meant that if you would show a net loss if you summed the net income of each airline in the industry since inception.

To be fair, while it definitely isn't clearly not true, my statement certainly is not clearly true... ;) Some non-industry pubs backing my not-clearly-true statement:

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/borenste/download/AERPP11Ai...

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/031714/why-airlin...

https://priceonomics.com/can-airlines-make-money/

Maybe so, since it would include a lot of government-owned and government-controlled airlines whose fares were subsidized by tax money in the interest of the public good. In that sense, they're a bit like Uber, which is subsidized by its investors in the interest of...well, attracting even more investors and keeping the whole pyramid scheme going.

Even if you leave out the government-owned and government-controlled airlines, there have been a lot of massive bankruptcies associated with the airlines even if you just limit the field to the US. Indeed, large bankruptcies were almost the norm. Even relatively recently, the statement that commercial aviation had posted net losses through its entire history was indisputably true. It may or may not be true given recent consolidation and considerable profitability.

I doubt the same "never made money" statements could be made about most industries.

OK... Using that approach I would assume that software has also lost money over the entirety of its existence. Perhaps not completely "untrue", but a silly way of looking at it and not what anyone would assume you were talking about.

Why would you assume that software-as-a-whole has lost money? The industry is full of un-subsidized, non-cyclical, high profit companies... Microsoft, Apple, Google, Oracle, Autodesk, IBM, EMC, CA Technologies, Saleforce.com, etc.

Not sure why it's a silly way of looking at an industry's long term performance. It shows that, while occasional profits are made, the industry is prone to brutal, un-differentiated price competition...

So you're saying you believe the Delta CEO when he says "Industry May Never Again Lose Money"? [1] Considering the above, I'd be skeptical they're experiencing more than temporary, cyclical profitability.

[1] https://skift.com/2016/06/14/american-airlines-ceo-says-indu...

How much VC money has been pumped into failed business?

It's all rather irrelevant. I don't know if software has actually been a net loss, but I know that looking at failed airlines and extrapolating out to the successful ones is silly.

That is a very unfairly misleading metric, then.

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